Quarterly Letters

Quarterly Letters


1st Quarter 2024

Bottom line: while short-term estimates vary, our longer run outlook for US equities remains wildly bullish.


4th Quarter 2023

Welcome to January, named after the Roman god of doors, gates, and transitions. In the spirit of Janus, the contributors to this letter review the lessons of the past year with an equal focus on the year ahead.

3rd Quarter 2023

It’s a dynamic world out there and we must adapt with it.

2nd Quarter 2023

We reason that the worst of the inflationary impulse caused by the pandemic has passed. From over 9% last June to about 4% today, the problem has more than halved. We’re on the right track. But further progress is needed.

1st Quarter 2023

We remain fully invested, guided by our core philosophy of own great investments while thinking and acting long term. We’re not swinging for the fences.


4th Quarter 2022

Time in the market is paramount to timing the market. It’s an unwavering principle that guides us through trying times. And history has shown repeatedly that it – reinforced by general optimism – is a winning strategy.

3rd Quarter 2022

Every period of poor market performance has been followed by a sustained period of outperformance and there is nothing to indicate the cycle is broken.

2nd Quarter 2022

Successful investors think and act long term. Do not let ten-year money become ten-minute money borne by the discomfort of lower prices and a more ambiguous short-term outlook.

1st Quarter 2022

This may all sound a bit dicey for now, but let us not forget that we are long-term investors. Ignoring the clatter is not easy.


4th Quarter 2021

“Economies remain open. Companies are largely doing well. And financial markets, having seen these viral waves play out before, are buoyant.”

3rd Quarter 2021

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

-Herbert Stein

2nd Quarter 2021

In this quarter’s missive John Bird, our co-founder and CEO, shares recent leadership changes that have been made within the company to pave the way forward into our next forty years of business. Our CIO, Jason Ware offers analysis of the post-pandemic economic acceleration that we witnessed in the second quarter of 2021. Then, Senior Wealth Advisor Liz Bernhard describes the state of fixed income investing in this era of low-interest rates. Finally, an update on our office hours and available meeting formats.

1st Quarter 2021

It has been over a year since Covid-19 disrupted our lives. In this quarterly letter our CEO, John Bird and CIO, Jason Ware, look back on the last year and share their perspectives on how we at Albion and we as a country maintained our resolve through a very challenging time. They also look to brighter economic days ahead.

We Serve People, Not Products


4th Quarter 2020

In this edition, our CEO, John Bird, reflects on 2020 through a unique investment lens and our CIO, Jason Ware, educates us on the markets and the economy. In Planners Corner, we hear from Doug Wells on why timing the market sounds easy, but statistically only works out about 10% of the time. Lastly, don’t miss the Women of Albion’s first 2021 event on ESG investing. Details can be found in the Albion Community section of this letter.


3rd Quarter 2020

In some ways it is hard to believe that 2020 is almost over yet, in other ways, it is hard to believe it is only November. Although we don’t want to wish time away, many of us are ready for a new year.

2nd Quarter 2020

We are hopeful that the coming months and years look bright. The economy should heal over time. Interest rates and inflation are low. Meanwhile, we explore the question: Is now a good time to refinance my home mortgage?

1st Quarter 2020

Restaurants are shuttered, hotels vacant, air travel sunk, and gyms and theaters dark. The data are clear–we’re currently in recession.


4th Quarter 2019

John Bird shares significant Albion news, Jason Ware assesses the state of the economy, and Liz Bernhard reviews changes to expect from the SECURE Act.

3rd Quarter 2019

We review international interest rates and their associated risks, balanced with the alternative of dividend stock income from favorable companies in this quarterly assessment.

2nd Quarter 2019

President John Bird shares lessons on market forecasting and in place of the “bull or bear” duality he reviews what we can learn from the animal archetypes introduced by Philip Tetlock.

1st Quarter 2019

Contains lessons learned about investor behavior from the Theranos scandal, a review from our CIO of the state of the market, a tax strategy that uses charitable gifting, and an introduction to the newest member of Albion Financial Group.


4th Quarter 2018

Contains some thinking on Artificial Intelligence, a review of the market narrative ending 2018, and the KonMari Method held up to personal finances.

3rd Quarter 2018

John Bird observes in “Prerequisite: The Attention Span of a Gnat” how the headlines of today quickly fade from the front page as we move onto the new and the next before truly understanding the facts.

2nd Quarter 2018

We break down the history of tariffs in the U.S. as well as share our economic and market outlook which, despite the scary headlines, is still relatively rosy. We also question paying off debt versus building savings.

1st Quarter 2018

April is Financial Literacy Month and in the spirit of education, this edition of our quarterly letter will focus on different aspects of financial literacy.


4th Quarter 2017

We explore how we work with our clients to turn risk assessment into meaningful portfolio construction. We also provide our outlook on the market and economy including impacts, real or presumed, of the 2017 Tax Cuts.

3rd Quarter 2017

We address the Equifax breach while highlighting steps you can take to make it a little harder for the bad guys to get their hands on your data. We also review the economy and despite the voices shouting from the rooftops.

2nd Quarter 2017

We share our thoughts on the importance of disruptive change as a facilitator of long-term economic growth.

1st Quarter 2017

“All over the world, we’re seeing access to food, clean water, education and healthcare improve; as a result, global innovation is rising as well.”

~ Peter Diamonds


4th Quarter 2016

With 2016 in the rearview mirror, we examine the increasing rate of change in our globally connected world and its social, economic and political impacts.

3rd Quarter 2016

“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”

~ Lewis Carroll

2nd Quarter 2016

BREXIT – Why do we care?

1st Quarter 2016

“The most difficult thing is to recognize that sometimes we too are blinded by our own incentives. Because we don’t see how our conflicts of interest work on us.”

~ Dan Ariely


4th Quarter 2015

“It is health that is real wealth and not pieces of gold and silver.”

~ Mahatma Gandhi

3rd Quarter 2015

“It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.”

~ Henry David Thoreau

2nd Quarter 2015

“Remember that credit is money.”

~ Benjamin Franklin

1st Quarter 2015

“The nation should have a tax system that looks like someone designed it on purpose.”

~ William Simon


4th Quarter 2014

“I do not agree with what you have to say, but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.”

~ Voltaire

3rd Quarter 2014

“Plans are nothing; planning is everything.”

~ Dwight D. Eisenhower

2nd Quarter 2014

“To the extent that people reach old age mentally sharp, physically fit, and financially secure, the problems of individual and societal aging fall away.”

~ Laura L. Carstensen, Stanford Center on Longevity

1st Quarter 2014

“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

~Mark Twain