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Monthly Market Recap – January 2024

Monthly Market Recap – January 2024 [PDF]Download

January 2024 Recap:

Inflation

Data released in January showed that as 2023 drew to a close, inflation was generally tame, but not quite tame enough for the Fed to declare victory. The Core PCE Deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) stood at +2.9% y/y as of the end of December, the first sub-3% print since March of 2021. Meanwhile, Core CPI printed at +3.9% y/y, also the lowest since the first half of 2021. While these figures are directionally encouraging, the pace of disinflation has slowed in recent months, and both metrics remain solidly above the Fed’s long term 2% target.

Monetary Policy

The main event for market participants in January was the FOMC meeting that concluded on Wednesday the 31st. While no one expected a change in overnight interest rates out of that meeting, everyone was interested in getting an answer to the question of “will they or won’t they” begin cutting rates at the March meeting. The answer, delivered as clearly as can be given the constraints of Fed-speak, is no. Jerome Powell made it very clear that the committee does not anticipate that economic conditions will justify the start of a rate cutting cycle in March.

Economy

Outside of the manufacturing sector, which mostly remains in contraction, economic data released in January was solid. Consumer confidence continues to climb, thanks in part to falling inflation that everyone can see at the gas pump. Lower mortgage rates stimulated activity in the housing sector. And the labor market remains strong: jobless claims are low (~200k initial claims per week), open jobs are plentiful (9 million per the most recent JOLTS report), and job creation continues to chug along (216k nonfarm payrolls added in the most recent monthly BLS job report).

Bond Market

The yield curve steepened in January, with 2y yields falling slightly while yields in the belly and (especially) the long end rising a bit. Longer term yields continue to be challenged by the outlook for US budget deficits, making them somewhat more attuned to the election cycle (and especially growing populist impulses across the political spectrum) that will unfold over the course of 2024. Most bond prices finished the month lower, although a contraction in credit spreads (to levels that are nearing historic tights) helped to cushion the downside in corporate bonds.

Stock Market

US large caps enjoyed a solid first month of 2024, but as was the case last year the gains were concentrated in a comparatively small number of individual stocks. Cyclicals and defensives were much more of a mixed bag, resulting in underperformance of small and midcap benchmarks that have greater exposure to such industries. International markets were mixed as well, with emerging market indices especially weak due to sharp underperformance in Chinese equities.

January 2024 S&P 500 Total Return by Sector

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy was resilient last year, and Wall Street analysts expect full-year 2023 corporate earnings to be roughly flat y/y versus 2022. Analysts are forecasting approximately 10% EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 20x is above the long run average, so valuation could be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns over the next decade are likely to be in the mid single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will cut overnight interest rates several times in 2024, most like beginning mid-year. The belly and long end of the curve have already priced in a rate cutting cycle, with yields falling more than 100bp in the past few months.

Inflation

After reaching 40yr highs in mid-2022, inflation has moderated significantly over the past 18 months. Goods inflation has fallen due to softening demand and supply chain normalization, while services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Albion’s Dashboard of Key Leading Economic Indicators as of 01/31/24
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Crafting a Foundation for Lasting Income in Retirement 

“Consider it as sculpting a financial architecture…”

Embarking on the journey of retirement is akin to laying the foundation for a fresh chapter in your financial life, where the structure of your income becomes pivotal. In this exploration, we’ll delve into the art of income planning beyond retirement—a strategic composition not just to make your money last but to construct a financial foundation for a lifetime. Consider it as sculpting a financial architecture to support your lifestyle and aspirations. 

Understanding the Blueprint of Retirement Income: 

“The initial step is to decipher the blueprint of your income sources.”

In the realm of retirement income planning, the initial step is to decipher the blueprint of your income sources. Begin by evaluating and documenting your existing and potential retirement income streams, including pensions, Social Security benefits, and withdrawals from your investment portfolio. This exercise transforms your blueprint from an idea into a written account, outlining the contours of your retirement foundation. 

Key Considerations: 

  • Pensions and Social Security: Scrutinize the reliability and sustainability of these income sources, weighing factors like lump-sum versus annuity payout for pensions and potential changes in Social Security regulations or benefit age. 
  • Investment Portfolio: Consider how your investments will contribute to your retirement income. Evaluate the risk profile of your current portfolio and its role in shaping your overall financial structure. 

Building a Structure of Sustainable Income: 

“This exercise transforms your blueprint from an idea into a written account, outlining the contours of your retirement foundation.”

Once the blueprint is clear, the subsequent step is to construct a plan for sustainable income. During this phase, you are crafting a framework for your retirement income that not only covers your basic needs but also adapts to the dynamic nature of your financial landscape. 

Strategies to Consider: 

  • Systematic Withdrawals: Establish a plan for systematic withdrawals from your investment portfolio, ensuring a steady income flow. There are various withdrawal strategies worth considering; this one proves relatively easy to implement. 
  • Tax-Efficient Strategies: Explore tax-efficient methods to optimize your income. This may involve considering Roth conversions, strategic charitable giving, or other approaches to minimize tax implications. Remember that reducing your total lifetime tax payments holds more impact for your financial plan than merely reducing your current year tax liability. 

Fine-Tuning for Resilience: 

“During this phase, you are crafting a framework for your retirement income…”

Just as architects prioritize resilience in building design, your retirement income structure needs fine-tuning for resilience. Integrate risk management strategies to guard against unforeseen challenges and disruptions. The focus should be on the goals you’ve defined for your retirement, without succumbing to the uncertainties of the world around you. 

Resilience Strategies: 

  • Emergency Fund: Maintain an emergency fund to cover unexpected expenses and ensure a buffer against financial uncertainties. 
  • Insurance: Review insurance strategies to ensure alignment with your needs, providing a safety net for unexpected healthcare or other significant expenses you prefer not to bear. 

Adapting to Change: 

“Regularly reviewing and adjusting your plan ensures resilience against evolving personal goals and unforeseen events.”

Bestselling author Morgan Housel encapsulates the transformative nature of time with his statement, “World War II began on horseback in 1939 and ended with nuclear fission in 1945.” In the realm of retirement, where uncertainties abound, one undeniable certainty is change. Your retirement structure should be dynamic, embodying a key principle of financial planning—adaptability. Regularly reviewing and adjusting your plan ensures resilience against evolving personal goals and unforeseen events. 

Adaptability Strategies: 

  • Regular Reviews: Schedule periodic reviews to assess the effectiveness of your income plan and make adjustments as needed. 
  • Flexibility: Build flexibility into your plan to accommodate changes in lifestyle, healthcare needs, or financial goals. 

The Completed Project: 

“Be sure to carefully reflect on the structure you have built, ensuring proper alignment and cohesion with your aspirations and financial goals.”

As you conclude the process of crafting your foundation for lasting income in retirement, be sure to carefully reflect on the structure you have built, ensuring proper alignment and cohesion with your aspirations and financial goals. In this endeavor, you’re not only securing your own financial future but also building a legacy to endure for future generations. 

Just as a completed architectural project stands as a testament to the vision and skill of its creators, your retirement income structure becomes a tangible representation of your financial success. It’s a timeless blueprint, offering enduring stability to enrich your retirement journey and providing a solid foundation for the chapters that follow. As you navigate the complexities of retirement income planning, you’re not just securing your own well-being, you’re shaping a legacy that will resonate for years to come, ensuring that your financial story stands strong against the test of time. 

“You’re shaping a legacy that will resonate for years to come, ensuring that your financial story stands strong against the test of time.”

It is strongly advised to seek counsel from a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or acting upon any recommendation outlined herein. Albion Financial Group disclaims any responsibility for the consequences of individuals’ decisions based on the information presented and encourages thorough consultation with a financial professional to ensure the appropriateness of any financial decisions made in consideration of personal circumstances and financial objectives.

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Quarterly Letter Excerpt: From John Bird’s Desk

Annual rate of homicides in the U.S.

For the last year and a half Albion has been sponsoring children at the Woodrow Wilson school, a Salt Lake City elementary school where 90% of the students qualify for food aid. Each month in conjunction with the Utah Food Bank we fill grocery bags for the children to take home to their families.


The students are just like you’d expect from a group of youngsters. Curious, energetic, funny, loud, silly, and occasionally contemplative. The food makes a significant difference for them and their families. For us it highlights the similarities among all of us. Regardless of economic circumstance most of us hope to have strong and caring relationships with our family and friends and live in a world where we are safe and find fulfillment while earning a reasonable living. Most of us do strive to get along with our neighbors despite differences of opinion we may have. You wouldn’t know that by reading the headlines. A recent sampling (with names removed) includes:


“Presidential Candidate augers divisive year in angry Christmas rant”


“2024 could bring a radical upending of the global order”


“The Supreme Court could correct Politicians’ huge mistake”


“With support fading and corruption building, will politician quit the race?”


“National anthem kneeler cancels Christmas and gift giving”


“Campus antisemitism finally gets its reckoning after students cheer terrorism”

From these headlines, and hundreds more like them, one might surmise that our overriding emotions are anger and fear. Yet that’s not the case. Yes, there is anxiety and anger in the population. And yes, unfortunately some of the most prominent voices feel they benefit by stoking anger, resentment and fear. Yet the facts show a different story.

Per FBI data violent crime fell 8% in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter last year and property crime fell 6.3% to its lowest level since 1961. But the dire headlines do work. Per Gallup 92% of Republicans, 78% of Independents and 58% of Democrats believe crime is rising.

We hear a lot about unemployment. Some choose to focus on job losses and high unemployment while others are focused on job creation. The current unemployment rate is 3.7% which is close to the low end of the long-term historical range. That’s impressive particularly in light of the rise in interest rates over the last several quarters. However despite high employment and consistent economic growth over half of us think the economy is getting worse, per a recent CNN poll.

Misleading headlines can be found regarding virtually any quantifiable measure. Why do we bring this up in an Albion letter? To highlight that in the work we do we must look past the headlines to what the underlying data tells us is actually happening. While there are clearly challenges in the world, the economic outlook has several bright spots. The Federal Reserve effort to rein in inflation is working. Higher interest rates, while clearly slowing economic activity, have not tipped us into a recession.

Consumers have remained resilient as spending has held up even in the higher rate environment. Companies continue to innovate and in many cases continue to show solid year-over-year earnings growth. Our professional goal for 2024 is to continue to scour the many opportunities to invest in what is working in the world and build and manage portfolios around those bright spots. Our personal task is to see the humanity in
everyone and do what we can with our family, friends, colleagues and peers to ratchet down the temperature that headlines work to inflame. We wish you all a peaceful and prosperous new year.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Quarterly Letter Excerpt: Economy & Markets

What does it mean to have humility? Classically defined, it is “a feeling or attitude awarding no special standing that makes you better than others.” As we close out the year, there are many lessons 2023 can teach us. Perhaps most salient is the concept of humility, especially relating to financial markets. Sour moods festooned the investment landscape as the year began. Inflation was high, interest rates were rising, stocks (and bonds) had just closed out a tough year, and recession was expected by most. Fast forward twelve months, as the year closes inflation is lower, rates have peaked, stocks (and bonds) logged solid returns, and the US has so far avoided recession. On the latter, while our process is thorough, I got it wrong in 2023. But it’s fanciful to expect that we’ll get everything right. Rather the aim is simply to go to bed a little smarter than when we woke up. To be lifelong learners and compound our knowledge. Fortunately, our toil and tenets position us to do just that.

We lost the venerable Charlie Munger this year. For over six decades Charlie was Warren Buffett’s sage right-hand at Berkshire Hathaway. He used to say, “we try to arrange our affairs so that no matter what happens we’ll never be sent ‘back to go,’” [Monopoly board game reference]. At Albion, we manage money under a similar belief. We don’t speculate. We invest. We don’t bank on short run forecasts when building portfolios. We take a long-term view. Indeed, an investment strategy shouldn’t hang on getting macro and market calls correct, and any such projections must carry a sizable dollop of humility. In practice, this means portfolio execution is incremental as opposed to extensive. Again, avoiding ‘back to go.’ This conduct is core to our investment philosophy. Adhering to these principles, plus sound investment selection, work together to deliver laudable risk-adjusted returns over time. Knowing the future is impossible. Accepting this is the first step to becoming less fragile and more adaptable. Instead, we pursue strategies that can survive whatever may occur.

Now, let’s review the fourth quarter.

The October through December period saw a continuance of the post pandemic expansion. GDP was (very likely) somewhat higher, the labor market is healthy, and consumer demand endures. Meanwhile, as we’ve anticipated, inflation is now about 3% (sub-3% by some measures!) and the Fed has clearly communicated that they’re done hiking rates. On balance, economic and market conditions sit somewhere between favorable and improving. This sent equities bounding higher. Concurrently, business profits – the lifeblood of stock prices – have perhaps bottomed if we avoid recession. That last piece is critical; we’ll revisit in a moment. A
ding against the quarter was the awful Israel / Hamas war that broke out on October 7th. While markets, including energy, have taken the turmoil in stride, the human cost has been immense.

The overall good vibes sent valuations higher. The S&P 500 now goes for about 21.5x trailing earnings and 19.5x 2024 estimates. Not cheap, especially against yields that, despite the recent drop, are near multi-year highs. It’s also not wildly expensive. Profit growth for the whole of 2023 will settle in slightly better than flat (versus 2022) and growth expectations for 2024 infer an impressive +12% stride. And it’s here where the question of recession / no recession matters most. As for Wall Street’s big picture 2024 outlook? The consensus is now (unsurprisingly) cheerful. Economists and strategists expect a decent year for stocks (i.e., building on ’23 gains) and no recession. Our outlook? Unhappily we still see elevated risk of a mild recession. Yes, the economy has been resilient. But just because a slump hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. The business cycle always looks good just before it slides.

Generally, when you spike rates it has a negative impact that works with a lag. The idea that the Fed can take rates from 0% to nearly 5.5% with over a trillion in quantitative tightening (QT), over a short period of time, and that the economic pendulum will stop from strong growth to perfect growth without going negative doesn’t make sense to us. It would be ahistorical to expect that. There’s evidence of this in many of our preferred leading indicators, like LEI and the Treasury yield curve, as well as some early signs that strong employment and a robust consumer may be waning. Add to this those higher rates – plus the view that they may stay up here for a while (“higher for longer”) – and we still see heightened odds of recession near-term. We’re not out of the woods yet.

Despite this stance, with great humility and borrowing from Munger’s book of wisdom, we’re not betting the farm. Instead, the result of our uncharacteristically cautious macro outlook means we’ve added some “defense” to growth portfolios while, importantly, staying fully invested. We consider this approach to strike a functional balance between respecting short-term risks while staying true to our DNA as long-term investors. The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting. We will continue to manage your precious capital using a resolute investment philosophy, quality securities, and the best possible information. Many thanks for your trust in us. Happy New Year!

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Quarterly Letter Excerpt: Planners Corner

Happy New Year

The New Year is a good time to review your financial strategies to ensure they are aligned with your long-term goals – an expertise we bring to bear for our many client families. As the calendar turns and we look to the year ahead, what’s on your mind? What worries you? What excites you? Any hopes for the new year? As your wealth advisor, we endlessly ponder these questions. And while some items are more pleasant to contemplate, it can all feel daunting. We can’t know what the future will bring. But uncertainty is part of life, and each new year brings unexpected events that will impact who we are and how we think about the world.

Often, January is when we set goals for the coming year. But how when we can’t know exactly what’s ahead? Early 2020 threw us a global pandemic; 2021, a new US president; 2022 began with a Russian invasion of Ukraine: and in 2023 we jumped headlong into an artificial intelligence craze. Some developments are more consequential than others, but each brings unique
haziness. What might 2024 hold?

The good news is we don’t actually need to know, though we must be ready for anything. It’s in our nature to believe we can think on our feet and quickly adapt to a changing environment. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done. For instance, consider a soccer player receiving the ball without having analyzed the whole field. Focusing solely on the ball forces them to react without proper scope. Should they pass, shoot, or perhaps execute a Maradona turn? Whatever the decision, they must act. Despite ardently training for this moment, full preparedness is lacking because they’ve neglected their surroundings. As it turns out, context and the bigger picture matters.

Just as situational awareness is necessary for athletic success, it also greatly impacts financial outcomes. Indeed, if you aren’t keenly aware of the backdrop (including self-awareness which takes into account our own behavior and biases) your abilities alone may not be enough when the “financial ball” is passed and critical decisions need to be made. As you’ve likely heard us say, we believe in the importance of quality advising where
financial success is the compounding result of a series of good decisions over time.

In soccer, it’s easy to know who wins – just look at who scored the most goals. Financial plans are different. What does it mean for you to win the “money game” you’re playing? Standard replies often center around the notion of financial independence, retirement, or a specific net worth. In fact, you could probably tell us precisely how much you’d like to make this year and what you’d like out of your investment portfolio(s), real estate, etc. Yet, viewing your finances in this way implies that money is a finite game with clear “winners” and “losers” bound by defined rules, limited resources, shared objectives, with cookie cutter endpoints and benchmarks. In truth, money and personal finance is an infinite game with no set finish line or buzzer. We must create individualized rules to offer our money utility. This personalization gives wealth purpose as we define both our goals and values. From there, we keep proactively “playing the game” based on this custom framework dedicated to your specific situation.

Bestselling finance author Morgan Housel has said the following about investing (one of the many areas of financial planning):

“It’s so easy to lump everyone into a category called
‘investors’ and view them as playing on the same field
called ‘markets’. But most of the time you’re just a
marathon runner yelling at a powerlifter. So much of what
we consider investing debates and disagreements are just
people playing different games and unintentionally
talking over each other. A big problem in investing is that
we treat it like it’s math where 2+2=4 for me and you and
everyone – there’s one right answer. But it’s something
closer to sports, where equally smart and talented people
do things completely differently depending on what game
they’re playing.”


Perhaps the single best game to impart the complexities of financial planning is three-dimensional chess with multiple opponents. Every move, every choice, creates additional uncertainties and interdependence that didn’t exist prior. And every move made by an opponent (e.g., externalities) creates the opportunity to reexamine one’s strategy. Financial plans can be continuously adjusted as each piece moves in the multi-dimensional chess game of life. Establishing an always monitored, ever evolving financial plan where we work together increases the odds of successful financial outcomes.

A central purpose of a financial plan is to help weather economic storms so that no matter what stage of life – accumulation, preservation, or distribution – you’re capable of absorbing and adapting to shifting environments. Let’s briefly revisit the notion of event-driven uncertainty. Think about the most recent significant global, national, or even local event. Did any of those catch you off guard, feeling unsure of your surroundings? Were you concerned about potential financial impacts? Going back to our soccer analogy, now imagine how would it feel to receive that “pass” amid the deafening stadium chaos, but this time you know exactly where you’re going. You’re prepared, situationally aware, and have filtered out the noise. Your coach’s (advisor’s) voice, the person with the best view of the entire playing field, comes through with great clarity and together optimal decisions are made.

Such arrangements bestow enhanced confidence to continue with the plan. When most are fearful, finding the signal in the noise provides us the refreshing opportunity to concentrate on other areas of life that truly bring joy and fulfillment. As your trusted wealth advisor, that’s the role we play. We’ll be here for you this year and beyond. Happy 2024!

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Quarterly Market Recap – Q3 2023

Quarterly Market Recap – Q3 2023 [PDF]Download

Q3 Market Recap:

Inflation

The disinflationary trend mostly continued in Q3, although rising oil prices (+$20/barrel over 3 months) pushed headline inflation higher as the quarter progressed. The y/y change in Headline CPI rose 70bp between June and August to +3.7% currently, while Headline PCE rose 30bp over the same period and stands at +3.5%. Core (ex food and energy) inflation continues to moderate but remains higher, with Core CPI now at +4.3% y/y while Core PCE stands at +3.9%. Of note, consumers’ inflation expectations remain well anchored despite rising energy costs, with the U of M survey reporting 1y forward expectations of 3.2% while 5-10y expectations have fallen to 2.8%.

Monetary Policy

The Fed raised overnight interest rates by 25bp at its July meeting, to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, and then did not change rates at the September meeting. The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies one additional 25bp rate hike is still to come before year-end, but futures markets are currently pricing only a 50/50 chance of such an outcome. Sandwiched in between Q3’s two FOMC meetings was the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where Jerome Powell’s keynote speech once again made clear that the FOMC intends to keep its policy rate restrictive for some time to come, as summarized by the “higher for longer” narrative.

Economy

Q3 data was mixed. PMIs from S&P Global and ISM continue to show weakness or outright contraction in manufacturing, as do many regional Fed surveys. Consumer sentiment indicators from the Conference Board and the U. of Michigan have recently moved lower, a reversal of the upward trend from the spring and early summer. Housing markets continue to be plagued by availability and affordability challenges driven by high mortgage rates, hindering activity. Finally, the labor market is slowly normalizing, with wage gains slowing and the number of open jobs falling. Despite these cross-currents, consensus estimates among Wall Street economists for Q3 GDP Growth stand at +3.0% q/q annualized, while the Atlanta Fed’s real-time “GDPNow” estimate stands at a whopping +4.9%.

Bond Market

Rates moved significantly higher in the belly and long end of the curve in Q3, as excess refi supply of US Treasuries was met with weaker demand from key domestic and foreign buyers. Mortgage rates followed suit, and now sit well above 7% nationally for traditional 30-year fixed rate loans. Credit spreads were stable to slightly better in the quarter, pushing most of the price declines in Treasuries through to munis and corporates.

Stock Market

Equities rallied to YTD highs in July before succumbing to rates-driven pressure on P/E multiples in August and especially September. Energy stocks posted solid gains driven by rising oil prices, but otherwise the selling was broad-based across market caps, sectors, and geographies.

Q3 2023 S&P 500 Total Return by Sector

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has shown resilience so far in 2023, and Wall Street analysts expect full-year corporate earnings to be roughly flat y/y. Albion’s base case expectation is that the US economy will enter recession in late 2023 / early 2024, putting downside pressure on earnings.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 18x is above the long run average, so valuation could be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns over the next decade are likely to be in the mid single digits.

Interest Rates

Rates rose dramatically in 2022 due to a sharp pivot in monetary policy, and have drifted even higher in 2023 as the Fed remains firmly committed to fighting inflation. Futures markets now imply a roughly 50/50 chance of one additional 25bp rate hike before year-end, followed by a pause.

Inflation

After reaching 40yr highs in spring of 2022, inflation has moderated somewhat over the past 18 months. Goods inflation has fallen due to softening demand and excess inventory, while services inflation remains elevated, in part due to shelter costs which are somewhat lagged.

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Elon Musk Biographer Speaks with Doug Wells About Latest Book

Elon Musk’s biographer Ashlee Vance was interviewed this week by Albion Partner Doug Wells on his KPCW radio program Mountain Money on the subject of Vance’s new book “When the Heavens Went on Sale”

Doug Wells interviews Ashlee Vance on KPCW’s ‘Mountain Money’

Ashlee Vance is an American business columnist and author, best known for his biography of Elon Musk, titled “Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future” which was released in 2015.

The biography traces Musk’s journey from his difficult upbringing in South Africa to his ascent to the pinnacle of the global business world. The book provides an outline of the experiences that have made Musk the man he is today, and how he has always dreamed big.

Vance’s new book called “When the Heavens Went on Sale: The Misfits and Geniuses Racing to Put Space Within Reach” tells the remarkable, unfolding story of a frenzied low Earth orbit “land grab.”

Through his trademark immersive reporting, Vance follows four pioneering companies—Astra, Firefly, Planet Labs, and Rocket Lab—as they build new space systems and attempt to launch rockets and satellites into orbit by the thousands.

While the public fixated on the space tourism being driven by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Richard Branson, these new companies arrived with a different set of goals: to make rocket and satellite launches fast and cheap, thereby opening Earth’s lower orbit for business—and setting it up as the next playing field for humankind’s technological evolution.

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2022 Market Recap

2022 Market Recap [PDF]Download

2022 Year-End Recap

Inflation:

Post-pandemic inflation was the story for the global economy in
2022, as a combination of snarled supply chains and labor shortages were
exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent energy prices
skyrocketing. Inflation reached a 40-year high in the US in the late spring,
but moderated somewhat in the second half thanks to falling energy prices,
fewer supply problems, and a slowly-but-steadily normalizing labor market.

Monetary Policy:

If inflation was the fuel for the 2022 bear market, monetary policy was the match that lit the flame. At the start of the year, the Fed still had overnight interest rates pinned at zero, and Fed Fund Futures markets were pricing in just three 25bp rate hikes in 2022. Fast forward 12 months, and the Fed has enacted the equivalent of seventeen 25bp hikes, including four consecutive 75bp increases, pushing its policy rate floor to 4.25%. Central banks around the world have followed suit in the fight against global inflation, including the Bank of England, the ECB, and even the Bank of Japan. Looking ahead to 2023, markets are expecting a much more balanced monetary posture, with two small rate hikes expected from the Fed early in the year, and the potential for cuts on the horizon towards the end.

Economy:

The US economy normalized somewhat in 2022, with growth
decelerating after a torrid +5.9% pace in 2021. GDP growth was mildly
negative in the first two quarters this year, but the US has avoided recession thus far, thanks largely to a resilient consumer. Over the course of the year, most gauges of manufacturing activity weakened, and housing decelerated sharply thanks to soaring mortgage rates. Looking forward, Albion’s expectation is that the Fed’s monetary tightening will ultimately cause the economy to enter recession at some point in 2023.

Bond Market:

Driven by the Fed’s sharp pivot to inflation-fighting, US fixed income endured one of its worst years in history. Treasury yields rose by 200- 350bp as the curve became almost completely inverted, and IG credit spreads widened by more than 30bp. No sector of the bond market was spared the decline in prices, although the restoration of yield to decade-plus highs helps to brighten the outlook for fixed income investors going forward.

Stock Market:

After reaching an all-time high on the first trading day of
2022, the S&P 500 spent most of the year in a bear market. Equity returns
were primarily driven by duration exposure, with long-dated growth sectors (especially technology) hit the hardest while dividend-rich sectors fared better. Energy was an upside outlier all year thanks to the dramatic rise in oil and gas prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. International stocks finished lower as well, with China giving investors a particularly turbulent ride in 2022 thanks to Beijing’s ever-evolving Covid and economic policies.

2022 S&P 500 Total Return by Sector

Albion’s “Four Pillars”

Economy & Earnings

US GDP rebounded to +2.6% in Q3 after falling
1H22, and corporate operating margins remain solid at ~12% on the S&P 500 Albion’s base case expectation is that the US economy will enter recession in 2023, putting downside pressure on earnings.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 17x is slightly above the long run average. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns over the next decade are likely to be in the single digits. Most or all of this year’s P/E multiple compression has been driven by rates, rather than an expansion of the equity risk premium.

Interest Rates

Rates have risen across the curve in 2022 in response to a shift in monetary policy. Fed Fund Futures are pricing in two additional 25bp hikes in 2023, with a “terminal” Fed Funds rate slightly below 5% for this cycle.

Inflation

After reaching 40yr highs in spring of 2022, inflation has begun to moderate in recent months. Headline inflation eased over the summer on falling energy prices, and core inflation has followed suit in Q4. Goods inflation has fallen due to softening demand and excess inventory, while heavily lagged housing data is helping to keep services inflation elevated.

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Does Fortune Favor the Brave?

By Doug Wells

Partner, Albion Financial Group

June 21, 2022

‘Fortune favors the brave’.  Matt Damon re-acquainted America with this phrase several months ago in an ad he narrated for a crypto website.  When bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were posting all time highs.  [see video at https://youtu.be/9hBC5TVdYT8]

When the market is going up each day, it is fun to watch your accounts and see how smart you are.  Your spouse might even look over your shoulder and comment in awe over how quickly your weekly balances are going up.  “Good job, honey”.

Matt got it right that fortune favors the brave. He missed the mark however on what it means to be brave. [Hint:  It is NOT simply piling in along with the crowd].

The Federal Reserve met last week.  They, like all of us, are concerned that inflation is too high.  And getting worse.  In fact, just days before their meeting, new data came out that caused them to go off script and raise rates by 75 basis points instead of 50 (100 basis points – “bips”- make up 1 percentage point).

In response, the market (S&P500) fell by 10%.  In a single week.  Year to date, it is down almost 25%. 

NOW is the time that fortune favors the brave.

There are three types of bravery at times like this.  

The first, and most important, is the  courage to stay the course with a well thought out long term asset allocation designed to meet your long term goals.  

If you work with a fee-only investment adviser, you and they likely came up with an investment allocation many years ago; an allocation designed to keep you on course during scary periods like these.

The second is the willingness to actually increase your asset allocation to equities even though they are already down significantly year to date.  And – very possibly – will fall even further. 

Buying a small amount of equities might help you mentally weather the storm (“at least I was able to buy one of my favorite companies at a lower price”).  Maintaining your mental strength is important.

Buying more than a token amount of the stock of your favorite companies is a very different decision.  Perhaps, in the past, you have felt under-invested in your long term equity allocation.  

If so, now might not be a bad time to true it up..  Certainly better than doing it eight months ago when the markets were at all time highs.  If this resonates with you, talk to your fee-only investment adviser.  Or Albion.  We are always accepting new clients with at least $1 million to invest and would be happy to chat with you.

The final type of bravery is the Matt Damon type of bravery.  Buying speculative assets (cyber currency, tulips or going “all in” a gambling spree to Vegas) that are down 60% or more year to date. 

Should you do this?  To paraphrase Matt … 

As these mere mortals – just like you and me –  peer over the edge, they calm their minds, steel their nerves with 24 simple words that have been whispered by financial advisers since the time of the Romans … “wealth is occasionally created by brave bold moves.  But it is best kept by patience, discretion, diversification and a well thought out financial plan”.

  • Albion Financial Group.  
  • Helping clients make a lifetime of great decisions for over 40 years
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Year-End 2021 Market Recap

2021 Market RecapDownload

SARS-CoV-2: The world experienced a number of twists and turns in the pandemic during the course of 2021. Vaccine rollouts during the first half of the year drove case counts lower in much of the developed world. The summer and early fall were dominated by the delta variant, which proved especially deadly for the unvaccinated. Omicron emerged in late November and quickly became dominant worldwide thanks to its ability to evade the initial protection from vaccines. Thankfully, evidence soon emerged that existing vaccines (and especially boosters) still provide significant protection against severe disease and death, and also that omicron is more likely to cause mild covid even in the absence of any protection from vaccines or previous infection.

Economy: The US economy grew rapidly in the first half of the year, but the pace of growth slowed in Q3 as the delta variant snarled supply chains worldwide. At year-end, consensus estimates for 2021 US GDP growth stand at +5.6%, which would be the highest since 1984. Housing and labor markets remain strong, jobs are plentiful (even if workers are not), household and corporate balance sheets are flush with cash, and demand for most goods and services is robust. At the same time, supply chain  bottlenecks and persistent labor shortages are causing inflation to run hot, at levels not seen in the US in more than 30 years.

Bond market: Bonds had a challenging 2021 as yields began to normalize from ultra-low levels coming into the year. But despite much hand-wringing about inflation, 10y and 30y Treasury yields actually peaked in March and the curve flattened as the year progressed. By year-end, investors were pricing in three rate hikes in 2022 as the Fed rapidly winds down its asset purchase programs. Meanwhile, credit spreads compressed as pandemic-driven default risk abated, cushioning price declines for investment grade corporate bond holders and generating strong returns in riskier high yield bonds.

Stock market: US stocks capped an excellent year with a strong December finish. Outperforming sectors in 2021 included energy (+54.4%), real estate (+46.1%), financials (+34.9%), and tech (+34.5%).  International stocks lagged, particularly emerging markets which collectively finished slightly lower on the year. Much of the drag in E/M came from China, which experienced multiple waves of regulatory scrutiny that caused investors to dial back their growth assumptions for many Chinese companies.