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Weekly Market Recap – September 27, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – September 27, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Fresh inflation data was supportive of the Fed’s decision to cut overnight interest rates by 50 basis points earlier this month. Headline and core PCE rose just 0.1% m/m in August, slightly below consensus expectations in both cases. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) now stands at 2.7% y/y and remains on a disinflationary path towards the Fed’s 2% target.

US stock prices continue to benefit from the combination of falling inflation and healthy economic growth. The Dow closed at a fresh record high on Friday, while the S&P finished the week just a hair off an all-time high set on Thursday. The Nasdaq remains almost 3% off the highs set in early July. Meanwhile, small cap performance remains inconsistent as the market rally broadens in fits and starts.

Rates and credit spreads were stable last week, resulting in limited movement in bond prices. The MOVE Index (a measure of interest rate volatility) finished the week in the low-90s, near the bottom end of the 2+ year trading range that has persisted since the Fed began raising rates in early 2022.

In international news, Chinese stocks finished the week 4.5% higher after the announcement of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus from Beijing, aimed at countering the country’s flagging economic growth. The People’s Bank of China cut rates on existing mortgages by 0.5% and lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% in an effort to inject liquidity into the banking system. Meanwhile, the central government plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth 2 trillion yuan, to be spent on various subsidies meant to stimulate consumer spending.

Chart of the Week: US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (y/y change)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for low double-digit y/y growth in 2024, provided the economy continues to expand at its current rate.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21.4x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will deliver interest rate cuts in each of the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or below what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After becoming sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024, more recent data has reinforced the disinflationary trend, and the Fed has expressed confidence in the path to its 2% target. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – September 20, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – September 20, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Last week the FOMC finally launched its much-anticipated pivot, delivering a 50 basis point cut in what will clearly be the first of several reductions in overnight interest rates. How many additional cuts will be delivered, and over what period of time, remain topics of debate amongst market participants. In the official release and during the ensuing press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that despite the 50bp reduction (unusual outside of crisis situations), the US economy remains on solid footing in the eyes of the committee. Notably, Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman dissented, issuing a short statement summarizing her view that with inflation currently above the Fed’s 2% target, a 25 basis point cut would have been more appropriate at this time.

Equity investors largely reacted with enthusiasm, as expected. The S&P 500 and the Dow set fresh all time highs on Thursday and Friday, respectively, thanks to notable strength in cyclicals and growth stocks. Small caps also enjoyed a tailwind.

Rates across much of the curve actually rose following the announcement, rather than falling as some might have expected. 10y Treasury yields ended the week 9bp higher while 30y yields finished up by 10bp, an indication that the bond market may have already fully priced the entire upcoming rate cutting cycle. Rising yields in the belly and long end are helping to restore the curve’s natural upward slope. Normalization in many parts of the economy (growth, margins, consumer, labor, etc.) has been a theme of the post-pandemic economy. As the Fed’s rate cutting cycle unfolds over the coming months, it appears that that theme may finally be applying to rates markets as well.

Chart of the Week: US Treasury 2s10s Yield Curve

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will deliver interest rate cuts in each of the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or below what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After becoming sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024, more recent data has reinforced the disinflationary trend, and the Fed has expressed confidence in the path to its 2% target. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Transferring Wealth: The Pros and Cons of Giving While You’re Alive vs After You’re Gone

Executive Summary

  • When transferring wealth, there are pros and cons to giving while you’re alive versus after you’ve passed.
  • For starters, transferring wealth after death ensures control during your lifetime and potential tax benefits after death, but may come too late to be truly impactful for your heirs.
  • Alternatively, gifting wealth during your lifetime allows you to see the positive effects and provides immediate support for your beneficiaries but could risk your financial security and possibly create financial dependence.
  • In the end, balancing these approaches involves considering tax implications, family dynamics, and your own financial security.

When it comes to transferring wealth, the default approach for most is to pass along an inheritance after you die, or give with a “cold hand.” And this makes sense in many ways, not only because of the tax benefits involved (your heirs can receive a favorable “step-up” in cost basis for certain assets) but also because it ensures that you still have access to your wealth while you’re alive—a key concern for many as people are living longer and medical costs are rising.

However, some financial experts argue that inheritances often come too late to be truly beneficial. Bill Perkins, author of “Die with Zero,” suggests that gifting money earlier, when it’s the most needed, can be a wise decision. He believes that waiting until after death to transfer wealth means missing the opportunity to see the positive impact your gifts can have and possibly delaying support until a time when it is less meaningful. 

In his book, Bill tells the story of a woman who had recently gone through a divorce and was struggling to make ends meet as a single mom. Decades later, after her financial situation had stabilized, she inherited a significant sum from her parents. Reflecting on that experience, Bill writes that she would have much rather received even a fraction of the money decades earlier when it would have had a major impact on her ability to make ends meet at a critical time. This example highlights the importance of timing and not waiting until it is too late to make a difference.

In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of giving with a “warm hand” and a “cold hand”. By considering different factors such as tax implications, family dynamics, timing, and your own financial security, our goal is to help you make an informed decision that aligns with your unique values, goals, and personal situation.

Giving With a Cold Hand

Simply put, giving with a cold hand means waiting to transfer your wealth until after you die.

First, let’s explore some of the benefits to this approach:

Pros of Giving with a Cold Hand

Here are some of the key benefits of waiting until after death to transfer your wealth:

Tax Benefits: One of the main advantages of waiting to transfer wealth until after your death is the potential for significant tax savings. Your heirs may benefit from a “step-up” in cost basis for certain assets, which can reduce capital gains taxes if they decide to sell the inherited assets. For example, if you bought stock for $20/share but it is now worth $100/share, typically if you sold the stock you would have to pay taxes on the gain of $80. But, if your heirs inherit the stock when it’s worth $100/share, the cost basis (the amount you paid for it) then shifts from $20 to the current market value of $100/share. The result is that if your heirs sold the stock immediately when they inherited it, there would be no taxable gain. 

Control and Security: By retaining your assets during your lifetime, you maintain total control over your wealth. This can provide peace of mind, knowing you have the necessary funds for any unexpected expenses or long-term care needs.

Legacy Planning: Waiting until after death to distribute your wealth can also allow for a more structured and planned approach. This can include setting up trusts with specific instructions to ensure your wealth is used and distributed for generations to come, according to your wishes.

Ultimately, there are some key benefits to giving after death as it can provide tax benefits for your heirs, allow for more control and security during your lifetime, and enable you to create a lasting legacy. 

Cons of Giving with a Cold Hand

Alternatively, here are some of the cons of giving with a cold hand:

No Immediate Benefit: First, a major drawback to this approach is that you won’t be able to witness the positive impact your wealth can have on your heirs right now, reducing the satisfaction you can get when transferring wealth.

Potential for Higher Taxes: Also, despite the tax benefits that can come from passing on assets after death, depending on the size of your estate and the current estate tax laws, your heirs might face significant estate taxes, which could reduce the amount of wealth they ultimately receive. Currently, with the lifetime exemption amount hovering around $13.61M per person (the amount you can transfer to your heirs free of estate taxes) this is not a huge consideration for many. That said, the current amount is set to expire on December 31st, 2025, and will be reduced to $5.6M per person if Congress does not extend the current laws. This is where smart financial planning can be critical as you navigate the complexities of estate taxes.

Family Disputes: Delaying the distribution of your wealth until after your death can sometimes lead to family disputes or conflicts over the inheritance, particularly if there are disagreements about your intentions or the terms of your will. Alternatively, by making gifts while you’re alive, your heirs can rest assured that your wishes are being carried out as you intended. 

Less Impactful Timing: As Perkins highlights, inheritances often come when recipients are already financially stable. On average, people receive inheritances around the age of 50, a time when many are already financially secure. Alternatively, many could have used the funds in their 30s or 40s as they were starting families, buying homes, and often paying off student loan debt.

In summary, while giving with a cold hand allows for tax benefits, control, and security during your lifetime, it means you won’t see the positive impact on your heirs and could lead to less impactful timing of the inheritance. Next, let’s explore “giving with a warm hand,” which involves making gifts during your lifetime to ensure your wealth benefits your loved ones when they need it most.

Giving with a Warm Hand

Giving with a warm hand is the concept of transferring wealth to your heirs while you are still alive.

This approach to estate planning goes against the traditional notion of passing down assets after death and instead focuses on sharing your wealth with loved ones during your lifetime. By giving with a warm hand, you can witness the impact of your generosity and ensure that your loved ones are financially secure and supported while you are still here. In some ways, it can also allow for more control over how your wealth is distributed today and can help minimize potential conflicts among heirs. 

Ultimately, for some, giving with a warm hand can allow for a more personal and fulfilling way of passing down wealth to future generations.

Pros of Giving with a Warm Hand

Immediate Impact: By gifting your wealth during your lifetime, you can see firsthand how your generosity benefits your heirs. This can be especially rewarding if the funds are used for meaningful purposes such as education, starting a business, or buying a home.

Tax Benefits: There are also certain tax advantages to gifting during your lifetime. For example, you can take advantage of the annual gift tax exclusion ($18,000 per person per year for 2024) and potentially reduce the size of your taxable estate, which could lower total estate taxes upon your death.

Strengthened Relationships: Providing financial support while you’re alive could also strengthen family bonds and foster a sense of gratitude and responsibility among your heirs. It also allows you to offer guidance and support in managing their inheritance.

More Meaningful Timing: As mentioned, by giving to your heirs in their 30s and 40s, you may be able to give financial support when they need it most – when starting a business, buying a home, or raising a family. This can make your gift even more meaningful and impactful for both you and your heirs.

Cons of Giving with a Warm Hand

While giving with a warm hand has many benefits, there are also potential drawbacks to consider:

Reduced Financial Security: Gifting substantial amounts of wealth during your lifetime can potentially compromise your financial security, especially if unexpected expenses arise or if you live longer than anticipated. That’s why it is critical to understand how much you need to sustain yourself throughout the rest of your life, build in a very conservative and healthy buffer, and ensure that you have adequate resources to cover yourself before giving away large sums of money.

Complexity: Lifetime gifting can also add complexity to your financial plan, especially when gifting different amounts to different beneficiaries over time, which may ultimately affect how you want the remainder of your wealth transferred after you pass. 

Dependency Risks: Of course, each situation is unique, but there’s a risk that your heirs may also become overly reliant on, or have an ongoing expectation of your financial support, which could hinder their ability to manage their own finances independently. 

In the end, giving with a warm hand involves transferring wealth to your heirs while you are still alive, allowing you to witness the positive impact and provide support when it is most needed. Though it can foster stronger family bonds and offer tax benefits, it requires careful planning to avoid compromising your financial security and creating dependency among your heirs.

Deciding Which Approach is Right for You


Ultimately, understanding your family’s dynamics and financial needs is crucial when deciding how and when to transfer your wealth. Remember, personal finance is personal, and there’s no one-size-fits-all approach.

Fortunately, open communication with your heirs about your intentions and their needs can help prevent misunderstandings and conflicts. Additionally, consulting with a trusted professional is essential to navigate the complex tax landscape associated with transferring your wealth, both before and after death. They can help you understand the tax benefits and drawbacks of both lifetime gifting and bequests. 

And of course, ensuring your own financial security should be a top priority, so working with a wealth advisor to create a comprehensive plan that helps you understand how much money you need to be secure is essential. 

Finally, remember that there are benefits to both approaches, and for some, it may be best to do a little bit of both, rather than focusing exclusively on one approach or the other. As an example, this could mean making annual tax-free gifts to your heirs during your lifetime while still transferring a larger sum after you pass.

In The End

In the end, whether you choose to give with a ‘warm hand’ or a ‘cold hand,’ thoughtful planning, open communication, and professional advice are key. 

By carefully considering the pros and cons, as well as the unique needs of your family, you can create a wealth transfer strategy that provides meaningful support to your heirs while ensuring your own financial security. 

Ultimately, the best approach is the one that aligns with your values and helps you achieve your unique financial goals.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – September 6, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – September 6, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

September is a notoriously difficult month for stocks, and so far 2024 has been no exception thanks to lingering concerns about the strength of the US economy. The S&P 500 fell every day last week and finished down more than 4%, while a rout in technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq to a nearly 6% decline. Small caps also struggled and continue to lag well behind large caps on a YTD basis.

Soft labor market data is partly to blame. Last week’s updates point to continued normalization of labor supply and demand, leaving open the question as to whether the Fed’s inflation-fighting campaign may yet cause the economy to overshoot to the downside. Per the JOLTS report, US job openings have fallen by roughly 1/2 million in the past two months as demand for labor weakens. The ADP employment report showed a net increase of just 99k payrolls, the lowest monthly total since January of 2021, before Covid-19 vaccines were widely available. And finally, nonfarm payrolls from the BLS (142k) came in slightly below consensus (165k), while the prior two months were revised lower by a combined 86k.

Yields fell across the curve in response, particularly in the front end as markets priced in an increasingly aggressive rate cutting campaign, including 4 or 5 cuts of 25bp prior to year-end across just 3 FOMC meetings. As a result of falling short term yields, the 2s10s curve went and stayed positive for the first time since it originally inverted in July of 2022. It is likely that over the next 18-24 months, the “normalization” theme that has applied to so much of the post-pandemic economy over the past couple years will finally begin to apply to the yield curve as well, gradually restoring its natural upward slope.

Chart of the Week: Nonfarm Payrolls Total Net Change (m/m, SA)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 20.6x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Understanding Employee Stock Options

Executive Summary:

  • Employee stock options allow employees to purchase company stock at a fixed price, offering potential gains if the stock price goes up.
  • There are two main types of stock options: Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) with favorable tax treatment and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs) with more flexibility but less favorable tax treatment.
  • Key considerations for managing stock options include understanding the vesting schedule, timing of exercise, tax implications, concentration risk, market conditions, and aligning with your financial goals.
  • Lastly, consulting with trusted advisors is critical to making informed decisions and maximizing the benefits of your stock options.

Employee stock options are a powerful tool used by many companies to attract, retain, and motivate employees. 

At a high level, they provide employees with the opportunity to purchase company stock at a fixed price, potentially leading to big gains if the stock price goes up. Many well-known companies, like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, use stock options, including both Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs), to align employee interests with company performance. 

But, it’s not just large publicly traded companies that offer stock options. Many startups and small businesses use stock options as an attractive alternative to high salaries to conserve cash and reward early employees.

If you have stock options, understanding how they work and how to manage them effectively can help you make smart decisions and maximize the benefits they can provide.

First, What are Employee Stock Options?

Employee stock options are contracts that grant employees the right to buy a specific number of shares of the company’s stock at a predetermined price, known as the exercise or strike price, after a certain period known as the vesting period. These options typically have an expiration date, by which time they must be exercised or they will expire. Stock options provide employees with the potential to become shareholders in the company and benefit from its success.

Stock Option Example: 

As an example, a typical stock option might give an employee the right to purchase 1,000 shares of the company’s stock at a strike price of $50 per share. If the stock price rises above $50, the employee can exercise their options and buy 1,000 shares at that lower price, effectively making a profit. Then, employees can decide whether to hold onto the stock or sell it for a profit.

Alternatively, if the stock price drops below $50, the employee can simply choose to wait, either until the price goes up beyond the strike price, or until the options expire, avoiding any potential loss.

Two Main Types of Employee Stock Options

When it comes to stock options, there are two main types: Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs).

What are Incentive Stock Options (ISOs)?

Incentive stock options are company stock options granted to employees that may provide tax benefits if certain conditions are met.

  • Tax Advantages: ISOs offer favorable tax treatment if certain conditions are met. When employees exercise ISOs, they do not have to pay regular income tax on the difference between the exercise price and the fair market value of the stock. Instead, this difference, known as the “bargain element,” is subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Then, if the shares are held for at least one year after exercise and two years after the grant date, any gain on the sale of the shares is taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rate.
  • Eligibility: ISOs can only be granted to employees (not to directors, contractors, or consultants).

Ultimately, ISOs can be a valuable tool for both employers and employees. They can serve as a way to incentivize and reward top-performing employees, while also providing tax benefits for both parties. But, because there’s a layer of complexity involved in receiving favorable tax treatment, it’s essential to consult with a trusted advisor before executing your options.

What are Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs)?

Non-qualified stock options are a type of employee stock option that allows employees to purchase company stock at a fixed price, with fewer restrictions and no special tax benefits compared to incentive stock options.

  • Tax Treatment: NQSOs do not qualify for special tax treatments. When employees exercise NQSOs, the difference between the exercise price and the fair market value of the stock is taxed as ordinary income at their highest marginal rate. This amount is also subject to payroll taxes. Then, any subsequent gain or loss upon selling the stock is treated as capital gain or loss.
  • Flexibility: NQSOs can be granted to employees, directors, contractors, and others, providing greater flexibility for the company.

Ultimately, NQSOs can be a valuable tool for companies looking to attract and retain top talent, even without the same tax benefits as ISOs. By offering employees the opportunity to purchase company stock at a discounted price, NQSOs can act as a powerful incentive for them to perform well and contribute to the company’s success.

Key Considerations for Managing Stock Options

When it comes to your stock options, planning is key. Here are some important considerations to keep in mind when managing your stock options:

  1. Vesting Schedule: Understand the vesting schedule of your options. Vesting determines when you can exercise your options and purchase the shares. Options typically vest over a period of time, such as four years, with a portion of the options vesting each year.
  1. Exercise Timing: Deciding when to exercise your options can have significant implications. For example, when exercising ISOs, many try to avoid exercising during a year with high income to minimize the alternative minimum tax (AMT) implications. In addition, there are certain rules to consider, such as not exercising more than $100,000 in ISOs in a given year AND the 10-year time limit to exercise your options from the grant date.
  1. Tax Implications: Consult a tax advisor to understand the tax consequences of exercising and selling stock options. The timing of your exercise and sale, as well as the type of option (ISO or NQSO), can significantly impact your tax liability.
  1. Concentration Risk: While stock options can provide substantial financial rewards, they also carry risk. Relying too heavily on company stock (when you already rely on them for a paycheck) can expose you to significant financial risk if the company’s stock price falls or the business falters. Diversifying your investment portfolio is crucial to managing this risk.
  1. Market Conditions: Consider the current market conditions and the performance of your company when deciding to exercise and sell your options. While no one knows what the future holds, it’s wise to weigh everything you know about the company with what you know about the current state of the market as market volatility can affect the value of your stock options.
  1. Financial Goals: Align your stock option strategy with your overall financial goals. Whether you plan to use the proceeds for retirement, buying a home, or other financial objectives, having a clear plan can guide your decisions.

These are just a few of the key considerations to keep in mind when it comes to managing your stock options. As always, it is important to consult with a trusted professional for personalized advice based on your unique situation.

Remember that stock options can be a valuable asset but also come with potential risks and complexities. By understanding the basics and carefully considering your options, you can make informed decisions that align with your financial goals.

Conclusion

In the end, employee stock options can be a valuable component of your compensation that can lead to significant gains if managed wisely. Understanding the different types of options, their tax implications, and the strategies for exercising and selling them is essential. By considering these factors and consulting with trusted advisors, you can make informed decisions that align with your unique goals and risk tolerance.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 23, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – August 23, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

The Fed was once again in focus last week, and financial markets were not disappointed. First came the minutes from the July FOMC meeting, which included the following summation of the committee’s current outlook:

“The vast majority of participants observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”

Next up was Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, where the Fed Chair essentially declared victory in the fight against inflation, noting:

“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic.”

Bond prices rose as rates moved lower across the curve in response to these statements, while futures markets continue to debate whether the September rate cut will be just 25 basis points (~70% implied probability) or a full 50 basis points (~30% chance).

Equities of all stripes were higher as well, with notable strength in small caps and cyclicals (ex energy) as the rally in stocks once again showed signs of broadening out beyond its mega cap tech base.

Chart of the Week: Fed Funds Target Rate (lower) with Implied Fwd Rates

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 16, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – August 16, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Macro data released last week, while somewhat mixed, was generally supportive of the soft landing narrative.

Inflation data came in below expectations, bolstering rate cut confidence:

* PPI dropped to +2.2% y/y (consensus = +2.3%; prior month = +2.7%)

* CPI dropped to +2.9% y/y (consensus = +3.0%; prior month = +2.9%)

Labor market and consumer-related data remained solid:

* Initial jobless claims eased lower for a 2nd straight week, to 227k

* Retail sales rose +1.0% m/m in July (consensus = +0.4%)

* U of Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly to 67.8 in prelim August data

Manufacturing and housing remain challenged, but so far that has not tipped the broader economy into recession and may not derail the soft landing outcome:

* Empire manufacturing remained in contraction territory at -4.7 for August

* Industrial production fell 0.6% m/m and capacity utilization fell to 77.8% in July

* Housing starts fell 6.8% sequentially in July to a SAAR of 1,353k

* Residential building permits fell 4.0% sequentially in July to a SAAR of 1,396k

Amidst this slew of macro data, the S&P 500 registered gains each day last week, with all sectors finishing the week in positive territory. The Nasdaq outperformed on renewed strength in mega cap tech stocks. In fixed income, rates fell modestly in the belly and long end of the curve as the market finds a new equilibrium after the flight-to-safety trade in early August. Credit spreads tightened during the week on renewed risk appetite, pushing corporate bond prices higher.

Chart of the Week: Consumer Price Index by Component (y/y change)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 9, 2024

Weekly Market Recap – August 9, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Following a tense weekend where renewed concerns about the US economy collided with technicals associated with an unwind of the Japan carry trade, US stocks started out in freefall on Monday the 5th, extending a decline that had begun during the latter portion of the previous week. The S&P 500 opened more than 4% lower and the Nasdaq was down more than 5% to start the session. Most notably, the VIX (the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index) briefly spiked to more than 65, a level only reached previously during the severe market shocks associated with the pandemic in March of 2020 and the financial crisis in Q4 of 2008. See the Chart of the Day for a time series of the intraday highs on the VIX.

Thankfully, stocks stabilized during the course of Monday’s session, aided in part by the 10:00 am release of the ISM Services Index (51.4) for July, which came in better than expected across the board. The rest of the week was a gradual recovery as the panic subsided, with stocks finishing only modestly lower by Friday’s close.

Fixed income also experienced some normalization over the course of the week.  Rates moved higher across the curve as the flight-to-safety trade waned, and credit spreads inched tighter day by day, in sync with the gradual recovery in equities. Mortgage rates appear to be a beneficiary of the recent fall in rates, with the national average 30-year fixed rate mortgage falling roughly 1/4 percent week over week in the most recent market survey.

Besides the ISM Services print, macro news was sparse last week. Initial jobless claims (233k) pulled back slightly, and total consumer credit outstanding grew by $8.9 billion in June, slightly lower than consensus estimates.

Chart of the Week: VIX Intraday High

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 20.2x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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How to Make the Most of Your Golden Years

Understanding and Navigating the 4 Phases of Retirement from Dr. Riley Moynes

Executive Summary:

  • Retirement involves significant financial and emotional transitions, impacting routines, identity, and purpose.
  • Dr. Riley Moynes’ framework of four phases helps retirees navigate these changes: the vacation phase, the loss and lost phase, the trial and error phase, and the reinvent and rewire phase.
  • Addressing emotional challenges is crucial to avoid depression and find fulfillment in retirement.
  • Engaging in meaningful activities and serving others can lead to a rewarding and purpose-driven retirement.
  • Lastly, understanding these phases and staying proactive ensures retirees can make the most of their golden years.

Retirement is one of the biggest financial transitions of your life, so many prepare for years or even decades in advance. 

From maximizing workplace retirement plans to optimizing Social Security benefits timing, retirees-to-be invest significant time understanding the financial nuances and tradeoffs needed for a secure and lasting retirement.

But, while many prepare financially, few consider the non-financial side of retirement, specifically, the emotional and psychological transition they will experience in retirement. 

And that can be hard, because the reality is that leaving behind your career, whether you were financially ready or not, can create significant challenges, ultimately leading to higher rates of divorce and depression among retirees.

Fortunately, just like you can prepare for the financial aspects of retirement, there are things you can do to smooth out the emotional and psychological ride into retirement, helping you to “squeeze all the juice out of retirement.” 

In his book, “The Four Phases of Retirement: What to Expect When You’re Retiring” and viral Ted Talk, Dr. Riley Moynes presents a framework to help retirees understand and navigate this significant life event through the 4 Phases of Retirement, which we will explore below.

The 4 Phases of Retirement from Dr. Riley Moynes

Phase 1: The Vacation Phase

The first phase of retirement is the vacation phase – a time when you enjoy your newfound freedom.

Just like being on vacation, you can wake up whenever you want and spend your time however you want – pure bliss, right? Well, just like being on vacation, there often comes a point where you’re ready to go back home, settle into your routines, and “sleep in your own bed again.”

In other words, the new, fun, and exciting feeling of being able to do anything at any time wears off, and you’re left to wonder: is this all there is? 

According to Dr. Riley Moynes, the vacation phase of retirement typically lasts a year before it starts to lose its luster. He says that once you find yourself questioning if this is all there is, you have officially moved on to phase 2. 

Phase 2: Loss and Lost

As the name implies, phase 2 is not a fun place to be, and in his Ted Talk, Dr. Moynes describes it for many as “feeling like getting hit by a bus.”

In this phase, retirees can experience 5 major losses:

The 5 Major Losses in Retirement

  1. Loss of Routine: While work provides structure and routine, the newfound freedom of retirement can be unsettling for many.
  1. Loss of Identity: Many people intertwine their identity with their work, often defining themselves by their job (e.g., “I am a doctor” or “I am an accountant”).
  1. Loss of Relationships: Strong career relationships built over decades can suffer as you no longer interact with colleagues daily.
  1. Loss of Purpose: Many derive their sense of purpose from their work, especially those who feel they are doing their life’s work.
  1. Loss of Power: Retirees often lose the power and influence they once had as key decision-makers in their careers.

Ultimately, these major losses can lead to what Dr. Moynes refers to as the 3 D’s: depression, divorce, and cognitive decline. This period can be incredibly challenging as retirees struggle to find a new sense of purpose and direction without the familiar structure of their careers. Many may feel isolated and uncertain about how to move forward, which can exacerbate these feelings of loss.

Fortunately, by the time retirees decide they can’t go on like this, they have officially entered phase 3: trial and error.

Phase 3: Trial & Error

Phase 3 is all about throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.

It’s a time when retirees ask themselves a couple of powerful questions: 

  1. How can I make my life meaningful again?
  2. How can I contribute?

Dr. Moyne’s advice is simple: do more of the things you love and the things you’re good at. 

And he says if you are having trouble figuring out what that is, start with some reflection. Ask yourself: a) what are some of your greatest accomplishments and b) what do you love doing? 

Where those two things overlap is where you should focus your time. 

Remember, this phase is all about experimenting and finding what brings you joy and fulfillment. Interested in volunteering at your local community garden or library? Go ahead and give it a try. 

And if you’re struggling to come up with ideas, here are ten activities to consider during retirement:

10 Ideas to Find Purpose in Retirement

  1. Volunteering: Engage in volunteer work at local non-profits, schools, hospitals, or community gardens. Volunteering allows you to give back to the community, meet new people, and find a sense of fulfillment.
  1. Mentorship: Offer your expertise and experience to mentor younger professionals in your previous field or other areas of interest. This can be done through formal programs or informal networks.
  1. Lifelong Learning: Enroll in classes at local community colleges or online platforms. You can study subjects that interest you, ranging from history and literature to science and technology.
  1. Hobbies and Crafts: Dive deeper into hobbies you’ve always enjoyed or pick up new ones. Whether it’s painting, woodworking, gardening, or cooking, engaging in creative activities can be very fulfilling.
  1. Fitness and Wellness: Focus on maintaining your physical health through activities like yoga, swimming, hiking, or joining a fitness group. This can also include mental wellness practices like meditation or mindfulness.
  1. Travel and Exploration: If you enjoy traveling, consider planning trips to places you’ve always wanted to visit. Travel can broaden your horizons and provide new experiences and memories.
  1. Writing and Blogging: Share your life experiences, knowledge, or interests through writing. Start a blog, write a memoir, or even work on a novel. This can be a great outlet for self-expression.
  1. Part-Time Work: Find part-time work or freelance opportunities in areas you’re passionate about. This can help maintain a sense of structure and purpose while allowing you to use your skills.
  1. Community Involvement: Get involved in local community groups or organizations. This can include joining clubs, attending town meetings, or participating in community events.
  1. Family and Friends: Spend quality time with family and friends. Strengthen your relationships by organizing regular get-togethers, outings, or family vacations. Being an active part of your loved ones’ lives can bring immense joy and fulfillment.

Phase 3 is all about experimenting with different activities until you find what brings you joy. Remember, this process is unique for everyone—there is no right or wrong—and it can continue to evolve throughout retirement

Last but not least, on to Phase 4: Reinvent and Rewire.

Phase 4: Reinvent & Rewire

In phase 4, retirees find answers to the most important question of them all: what’s the point?

But, in Dr. Moynes’ experience, not everyone makes it to phase 4, with some retirees bouncing back and forth between phases 2 and 3. But, for those that do, he finds that it almost always involves service to others, in some capacity. 

This could involve giving back to your community through volunteer work or mentorship. In his TED Talk, Dr. Moynes mentions a retiree who found joy in delivering “piping hot pizzas to hungry humans” part-time, not for the money, but for the satisfaction of serving others.”

For Dr. Moynes, success in phase 4 came through a friendship he formed that evolved into community classes teaching other friends how to use their iPhones and iPads. He joked that it all started because he and his fellow retirees were all given various Apple products for Christmas from their kids, but half of them could barely figure out how to turn them on, let alone use them. So, he and a friend taught a class on how to use their devices that snowballed into hundreds of classes on a variety of subjects over the years: from how to repair bikes, to learning different languages. 

The best part of all? Dr. Moynes has found that through Phase 4, retirees can recover many of the losses from Phase 2: routine, identity, relationships, purpose, and power. This phase not only helps retirees regain a sense of stability but can also bring renewed meaning and satisfaction to their lives.

So, knowing what you know now, where do you go from here? 

Dr. Moynes’ advice is simple:

Here Are 4 Steps You Can Take to “Squeeze the Most Juice” out of Retirement

  1. Enjoy the vacation in phase 1.
  2. Be prepared for the losses in phase 2.
  3. Try as many different things as possible in phase 3.
  4. And lastly, squeeze all the juice out of retirement in phase 4. 

In the end, with 10,000 people hitting retirement age every day and retirement potentially lasting a third of their life: a) you are not alone and b) this is a problem worth solving. 

By understanding and embracing these four phases, you can turn the challenges of retirement into opportunities for growth, fulfillment, and happiness. Whether you are just beginning your retirement journey or are already navigating its complexities, remember that each phase is a step towards a richer, more rewarding life. The key is to stay open, flexible, and proactive in finding what makes your retirement truly golden.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 2, 2024


Weekly Market Recap – August 2, 2024 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Weak labor market data on Thursday and Friday of last week heightened fears regarding the condition of the US economy, turning what had been a rotation trade into a fear trade. Equities of all stripes were down sharply as VIX spiked to its highest level in more than a year. Defensive sectors like utilities, staples, and real estate outperformed on the week, while most growth and cyclicals companies were lower. Small caps reversed course on their recent outperformance and shed nearly 7% on the week, significantly underperforming large caps.

With some market participants suddenly clamoring for an emergency rate cut, Treasury yields fell sharply as bond prices rose. 2y yields dropped 50bp on the week, 10y yields finished 40bp lower, and Fed funds futures markets finished Friday’s session with 4 to 5 rate cuts priced in by year-end. Credit spreads leaked wider by about 10 basis points, a comparatively modest amount that could be a precursor of more widening to come.

The data driving the equity selloff largely came from the labor market, although a weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing print also contributed, coming in at 46.8 for July. On the labor front, initial jobless claims (a leading indicator of labor market stress) rose to 249k, the highest figure in nearly a year. Then on Friday, nonfarm payrolls fell to +114k in July from a downwardly revised +179k in June, missing consensus by a wide margin. Perhaps most importantly, U-3 unemployment rose 20 basis points to 4.3%, officially triggering the “Sahm Rule” (trailing 3m avg U3 more than 50bp greater than trailing 12m low U3) which in the past has proven to be a very reliable real-time marker for the actual start of a US recession (recession dates are officially determined after the fact by NBER).

Chart of the Week: US Unemployment Rate (U-3)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will cut overnight interest rates once or twice in the 2nd half of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates have already priced in a rate cutting cycle and are likely near their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the ~3% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.