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From Shirtsleeves to Success: Ensuring a Lasting Financial Legacy

Executive Summary: 

  • Creating a lasting financial legacy involves more than just wealth; it requires instilling values, open communication, and comprehensive planning to avoid the common “shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” cycle.
  • Key strategies include early and frequent communication, recognizing that a legacy is more than money, establishing a robust estate plan, educating the next generation on financial literacy, and empowering rather than entitling heirs.
  • By focusing on these areas, families can ensure their wealth continues to benefit future generations while preserving the values that matter most.

After securing your own financial success, it’s natural to look to the next generation and consider the financial legacy you will leave behind.

And for most, that financial legacy is more than just money; it’s the impact they have, the opportunities they create, and the values they instill. 

But, unfortunately, while many hope their legacy and wealth will provide lasting benefits for generations to come, that’s rarely the case, writes Courtney Pullen, author of Intentional Wealth: How Families Build Legacies of Stewardship and Financial Health. Instead, Pullen writes that roughly 90% of affluent families lose their wealth by the end of the third generation—a phenomenon referred to as going from “shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.” 

In his book, he attempts to answer the critical question: What are the other 10% doing? And more importantly, how can you apply this to your family? To that end, here are five essential strategies to prevent the shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations cycle that plagues many wealthy families.


Strategy #1: Communicate Early and Often

Communication is key, especially when it comes to your financial legacy.

Through open, honest, and clear communication, you can create an environment of understanding, clear expectations, and continuity between generations. Alternatively, without it, you can end up with confusion, unclear or unmet expectations, and worst of all, family members fighting amongst themselves over who gets what. 

But, as Pullen writes, good communication doesn’t mean you discuss everything and of course, no family is going to be perfect, but successful families practice what he calls skillful communication. That is: they talk about the issues that need to be talked about and they do so without putting each other down. 

To highlight the importance of communication, Pullen uses the example of The Mitchells, a couple in their 60s who owned a successful manufacturing business and consulted Pullen over concerns about their son. Ultimately, Pullen discovered that their son, who had started his own manufacturing business but was running it into bankruptcy, “hated the business”, but was in it because he felt it was “the only way to get his parent’s approval.” 

But, when Pullen discussed this with his parents, they replied, “We don’t care what business he’s in as long as he’s happy. In fact, we’d just as soon he tried some other field that’s less risky.” Ultimately, this knowledge led their son to sell his business, go back to school for an advanced degree in history, and pursue a rewarding career as a professor at a community college. 

Pullen goes on to explain that he’s seen many similar situations when working with wealthy families, especially when there’s a family-owned business involved, and often, he can trace the roots of these long-term challenges back to failed communication.  

To avoid this, here are some practical tips to consider:

Practical Tips:

  • Schedule Regular Family Meetings: Set up regular family meetings to discuss the family’s financial situation, goals, and plans. These meetings can be a platform for educating younger family members and addressing any concerns.
  • Encourage Questions: Foster an environment where family members feel comfortable asking questions and seeking clarity on financial matters. This builds their confidence and understanding over time.
  • Involve Multiple Generations in Planning: Include younger generations in financial discussions and legacy planning. This not only educates them about financial management but also ensures that they understand the values and intentions behind the legacy, leading to better stewardship in the future.


Strategy #2: Realize That Your Financial Legacy Is More Than Money

Next, it’s important to keep in mind that a financial legacy isn’t just about passing on money; it’s about passing on the core values and ethics that will guide how that money and opportunity are used. In other words, it’s about passing on what your family stands for.

But, before you can do that, families must first identify what they stand for.

And the beauty of this is that there is no one-size-fits-all for every family, every generation, or every individual. So, Pullen recommends that families first work to establish what is important to them and create their own family culture by defining their core values. 

Some examples of core values could include:

  • Intentionality: Making deliberate and thoughtful decisions about how wealth is managed and utilized.
  • Work Ethic: Valuing hard work and dedication as key components to sustaining and growing wealth.
  • Responsibility: Understanding the importance of stewardship and being accountable for financial decisions. 
  • Humility: Recognizing that wealth is a tool, not a measure of self-worth, and staying grounded in one’s values.
  • Philanthropy: Committing to using wealth to give back to the community and support causes that align with family values.

One of my favorite lines in Pullen’s book comes from a “second-generation owner of a flourishing family business” who said that one of their core family values is: “We don’t go around acting like rich folks.” To their family, being humble with their wealth was critical to their family identity.

Again, these are just examples, and it’s up to each family to identify the core values that are important to them to ensure they are part of their legacy. At the end of the day, the most lasting financial legacies are those that carry forward the values and beliefs that make your family unique, making sure that the money isn’t just preserved, but used in ways that matter to everyone involved.


Strategy #3: Establish a Comprehensive Estate Plan

Next, one of the most effective ways to preserve wealth across generations is with a well-structured estate plan. 

Done right, a comprehensive estate plan ensures your assets flow directly to who you want, when you want, according to your exact wishes. Alternatively, failing to create a comprehensive estate plan can lead to confusion, assets being distributed based on what the court decides, and even disagreements among family members about what your wishes may have been. 

Estate planning tools like wills, trusts, and powers of attorney are critical elements of your estate plan. These documents allow you to get very specific about who gets what, when they receive it, and any potential requirements or conditions they must meet to become eligible for an inheritance. 

Of course, the details of each plan will vary based on the specific circumstances of each family and their overall goals and desires with wealth, but the point is that these documents are the best way to ensure your wishes are carried out and avoid any confusion about how you want your wealth to be transferred to the next generation.

Practical Tips:

  • Professional Guidance: Work with a financial advisor and estate attorney to create or update your estate plan. These professionals can help you navigate the complexities of estate planning and ensure that your plan is tailored to your specific needs and goals.
  • Regular Reviews: Regularly review and adjust your estate plan as circumstances change, such as the birth of new family members, marriage or divorce, or shifts in financial goals. A good rule of thumb to consider is that if you’ve had a birthday that ends in a 5 or a 0, it’s a good time to review and potentially update your estate plan as needed. 
  • Discuss your Plan: Lastly, going back to the importance of communication – consider discussing your estate plan with the next generation. Of course, this doesn’t mean you need to share the details of who gets what or how much they get, but rather, this is an opportunity to explain why you’ve structured things the way you have, who will be in key roles, and any important decisions you’ve made. This can help avoid any confusion or conflicts down the line and ensure that your wishes are understood and respected.

By proactively establishing a comprehensive estate plan and regularly reviewing it, you can ensure your wealth is preserved and transferred according to your wishes, minimizing the risk of confusion or conflict among your heirs.


Strategy #4: Educate the Next Generation on Financial Literacy

Even with the best estate plan, generation wealth will not last if the next generation lacks the knowledge and skills to manage it effectively. That’s why financial literacy is a critical component of preserving and growing wealth across generations.

The Role of Education

Providing your heirs with a strong foundation in financial literacy equips them to make informed decisions and avoid common financial pitfalls. This education should go beyond the basics of saving and investing; it should include an understanding of the family’s financial goals, the responsibilities that come with wealth, and the tools available to manage it effectively.

For many affluent families, this expertise can be enhanced with the help of trusted financial professionals, like financial advisors, accountants, and attorneys. That said, it’s essential that each family member still have a baseline level of financial education, even if they work with trusted professionals. This ensures that they have the knowledge and skills to oversee their team of professionals and ensure their wealth is positioned to last for many generations to come. 

Practical Tips:

  • Formal Education: Consider providing formal financial education for your heirs, whether through courses, workshops, or seminars. This can help them build a solid understanding of financial concepts and strategies.
  • Practical Experience: Encourage your heirs to gain practical experience by managing smaller family funds, engaging in philanthropic activities, or overseeing specific investments. This hands-on experience can be invaluable in building their financial acumen.

By equipping the next generation with financial literacy and practical experience, you empower them to make informed decisions and maintain the family’s wealth for generations to come.


Strategy #5: Empower, Don’t Entitle

Last but not least, it’s critical to take steps to empower the next generation, not entitle them.

One of the interesting points that Pullen makes in his book is that it’s no surprise so many affluent families end up with an entitlement problem. In fact, he points out that entitlement is a pretty normal part of being human as he writes: “No matter what comforts, indulgences, or rewards we get, or whatever lifestyle we become accustomed to, it doesn’t take long for us to start assuming we’re entitled to that lifestyle and have a right to keep it. 

The challenge is that those in affluent families typically don’t come up against many of the common financial limitations that others face as Pullen writes “money dissolves many limits.” As a result, Pullen explains that it’s common for kids in affluent families to grow up thinking things like: 

  • “I deserve it and I should have it.”
  • “I should always get everything I want.”
  • “My needs and wants should always come first.”

So how can you avoid this? Fortunately, Pullen highlights five key factors that successful families incorporate to shift from entitlement to empowerment:

  1. Be intentional: Accept the responsibility and advantages of wealth and create an intentional plan for how you will use your wealth.
  2. Focus on future generations: Educate the next generation on financial literacy. 
  3. Communicate Openly: Again, successful families talk about the issues that need to be talked about and do so without putting each other down.
  4. Create a family identity: Remember that financial legacy is more than just wealth and spend time discussing the core values that will make up your family identity. 
  5. Redefine success: Lastly, keep in mind that “success” will look different for each generation. For example, success for the first generation is often defined by the businesses they’ve built or the wealth they have created. But, for second and third generations, success could mean ensuring that the wealth is managed effectively and each member of the family is realizing their full potential. 

By focusing on intentionality, education, open communication, and a strong family identity, you can shift from entitlement to empowerment, ensuring that each generation is prepared to uphold and build upon the family legacy.


Conclusion: How to Build a Legacy That Lasts

In the end, creating a lasting financial legacy requires more than just accumulating wealth; it involves careful planning, open communication, and a commitment to instilling values and educating the next generation. By taking these steps, you can help ensure that your wealth not only endures but also continues to benefit your family for generations to come. 


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – October 11, 2024

Weekly Recap:

Domestic stocks posted gains last week despite rising bond yields and slightly higher oil prices. Inflation and monetary policy were in focus. First, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed a nearly even split between committee members favoring 25bp vs. 50bp rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s personal preference for a 50bp cut appears to have been the deciding factor.

Then on Thursday, fresh CPI data appeared to undermine the wisdom of a 50bp cut, as headline and core inflation both came in slightly hotter than expected:

* Headline CPI = +2.4% y/y; consensus = +2.3%

* Core (ex food & energy) CPI = +3.3% y/y; consensus = +3.2%

In response to a divided committee and warmth in inflation, Treasury yields rose and the curve steepened. Futures markets continue to reprice the magnitude and pace of the rate cutting cycle, settling for now on 25bp cuts at the November and December FOMC meetings, following by 4 or 5 additional 25bp cuts in 2025.

Through it all though, US equity benchmarks finished higher on the week, with notable strength returning to Nvidia on comments from CEO Jensen Huang that demand for the company’s new Blackwell chip is “insane”, while production is now fully ramped. Other semiconductor companies and A/I theme stocks benefitted from a read-thru, causing the tech sector to outperform on the week.

The biggest laggard last week was Chinese stocks, which gave back some of their recent extraordinary gains after investors were left disappointed by a speech from President Xi Jinping regarding the upcoming monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Chart of the Week: Consumer Price Index Components (y/y change)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for high single-digit or low double-digit y/y growth in 2024, provided that the economy continues to expand.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21.4x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will deliver 25 bp interest rate cuts in each of the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After becoming sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024, more recent data has reinforced the disinflationary trend, and the Fed has expressed confidence in the path to its 2% target. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Third Quarter 2024 – Quarterly Letter

Introduction

As the leaves change color and fall, John Bird, our CEO, reflects on past lessons while eyeing the future. Then CIO Jason Ware notes the signs of post-pandemic normalization emerging, though challenges persist in fiscal policy and market uniformity. As investors navigate this evolving landscape, Financial Planner Anders Skagerberg describes practical measures that can safeguard financial identities. This autumn as nature changes, investors must be vigilant and adaptable in a dynamic financial ecosystem.

Beyond these informative articles, read through to the Community Update for information about our final Conference Call of the year and to meet the newest members of our growing team.

From John Bird’s Desk

When we started Albion in 1982, the era of the “Nifty Fifty” had drawn to a close and much ink was spilt describing their rise and…the several following years when they were just average. For those of you who may not have experienced it, the Nifty Fifty was a moniker for a group of large and fast-growing companies in the1960’s and into the 1970’s. Names included General Electric, IBM, Sears Roebuck, Xerox, Proctor and Gamble, and Coca-Cola. Many investors considered them one decision stocks – companies you could buy and own forever. Investors bought them by the truck load. By the end of 1972 the group as a whole had a price-earnings ratio of 43 while the S&P 500 as a whole had a ratio of 18. For those who are unfamiliar with a price-earnings ratio (PE ratio or just “PE”) it is the price you pay for a dollar of corporate earnings. A PE of 18 means you pay $18 for a dollar of corporate earnings while a PE of 43 means you pay $43 for a dollar of corporate earnings.

All things being equal we’d rather pay less for a dollar of corporate earnings. However rarely are things equal. In the five years leading up to the end of 1972 the Nifty Fifty stocks had as a group averaged 22% annual earnings growth (compared to 4% for the S&P 500) and 30% earnings growth in 1972 alone (13% for the S&P 500). Investors were willing to pay up for growth they expected to continue well into the future.

Alas parties all must eventually end. By 2001 only one Nifty Fifty company – Walmart – had continued to outperform the S&P 500. Another item of note is how the composition of the stock market has changed over time. The following graph shows market sectors from 1807 through 2017.

There are several takeaways from this including the observation that the best performing sector in the future may not yet exist. It’s also worth noting that none of the sectors wholly disappeared. In fact all sectors continued to grow. For most sectors their representation on the graph shrunk because they grew far slower than other sectors and thus represent a smaller percentage of the overall economy.

This graph shows the evolution off the 12 sectors that make up the American economy over the past 200 years. The graph illustrates the capitalization of each sector based upon stocks included in the U.S. Stocks Database.

These days we hear about the magnificent seven – seven companies that have grown far faster than the S&P 500. We note that in 2023 these magnificent seven delivered as a group 101% returns while the equal weighted S&P 500 index delivered 2.5%. Meaning the average stock in the S&P 500 returned 2.5%. There is logic to this. The hardware, software, energy and intellectual property investment required to make Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models favors those companies with the ability to raise enormous amounts of capital and effectively put that capital to work. The magnificent seven have those resources.

Note that this concentration – where a handful of companies have an outsized influence on market index returns – has a precedent. The following graph shows the weight of the ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 – currently around 32%. While high it’s not record setting. Prior to 1973 the Nifty Fifty had more concentration in the top ten companies than we see today.

The weight of the 10 largest S&P 500 stocks is now 33.1% of the total $SPX, the highest level in almost 5 decades.

It’s weak comfort knowing concentration among a few names has been greater in the past than it is today given that following peak concentration the Nifty Fifty trailed the broader market. We are well aware of this. We are also aware of the reality that much of technology today requires vast investments to remain at the leading edge and the companies that have so far succeeded in staying out front have a significant advantage. The depth and breadth of their existing capacity and the free cash flow they generate gives them the position and the resources to reinvest and stay in the drivers seat.

We will ride our winners, trim them from time to time to avoid being over exposed, and carefully study market dynamics to increase the odds that we will have even further reduced our exposure to highfliers before they fly too close to the sun. Because there is no such thing as a one decision stock.

Economy & Markets by Jason Ware

For over three years in these pages (and elsewhere) we’ve spoke of “normalization” both economic and social. Normalization is the process of, well, getting back to normal. Across so many areas – GDP growth, consumer spending (the how and how much), supply chains, inflation, jobs, corporate earnings, oh, and the vaccines that gave us our lives back – this has happened. Now it’s interest rates. With the Fed’s -0.50% “jumbo cut” on September 18th a new easing cycle is underway. And with it, an oxymoronic feeling that perhaps somehow we’re now reaching … er … “peak normalization.” Wait, is that possible? Can that even be a thing? We’ll leave that philosophical question for another day. What seems quite clear is that there are few major chiropractic adjustments left on the post-pandemic economy. Normal is good, yet there are other areas where stuff is out of whack. The big ones being a more uniform equity market and fiscal policy. More on these in a moment. For now, let us review where things currently stand.

Our economic outlook has been uncharacteristically cautious for several quarters. A host of troubling leading indicators, Volcker-esque Fed tightening, shrinking money supply, a massive inflation surge, and downbeat consumer attitudes informed this view. Recession risks were high, have since diminished, but remain elevated. Through it all the US economy has stayed on a growth course, running a gauntlet that would make Churchill proud (“if you’re going through hell, keep going”). Total output (GDP) paced at roughly +2.25% in the first half of the year and is presently running about +3% for the third quarter. This stride may slow as we exit the year, though probably not to recessionary levels. The expansionary impact of large fiscal spending, abundant real wage growth, impressive business profits, and colossal capital formation (i.e., spending and investment) on AI has offset headwinds. As we opined in our last quarterly epistle, it’s a “growth at all costs” backdrop paired with an animal spirits redux in technology driving the business cycle. The fabled “soft landing” is possible; we all hope it occurs.


On the inflation front, an area of focus since 2022 and one where we’ve consistently offered an out of consensus sanguine view (don’t fret, it’ll sort itself out), it seems that Jerome Powell finally feels content giving the nod that it’s successfully been whipped. “WIN” buttons back into the drawer! To be fair, when assessing all manner of inflation details swirling about it is sensible to conclude that price stability has been achieved and underlying pressures have quieted. Still we reason that structural inflation falling much further is unlikely. Prior to the pandemic core inflation reliably ran at 1-2%. For many reasons, today and over the next few years it’ll probably run between 2-3%. Framed another way, from 2008-2021 the Fed’s 2% target was a ceiling; in the 2020s it will probably be a floor. This isn’t a bad thing. The economy and financial markets can do well in a 2-3% inflation regime.


Speaking of financial markets, US stocks continue apace. It’s been a fruitful year. One item that has changed since our last letter, albeit it’s early days, is the character of those returns. It’s no secret that a small group of lopsided winners account for the lion’s share of gains in this bull market. It’s been a “skinny bull” as we’ve coined it, but that might be shifting. The third quarter was the first time in the contemporary bull run where growth stocks, especially of the mega cap variety, did not lead the way. Instead, other areas like value, cyclicals, defensives, and small caps (eureka!) logged superior advances when compared to their big siblings. At last, Nvidia and AI wasn’t the only story worth discussing. On Wall Street it’s said that “trees don’t grow to the sky.” Translation: nothing lasts forever, future returns get pulled forward, analysts catch up to the story, and lofty expectations become harder to beat. The notion of a resilient economy coupled with Fed rate cuts is just what the doctor ordered for other parts of the equity market that aren’t the “Mag 7.” Finally, it’s been the “493’s” (500 S&P stocks minus 7) day in the sun as participation broadens out. This is a positive development for both your well diversified portfolio and the overall health of the bull market. To be clear, we expect good results from the mega cap stocks going forward. A more uniform market doesn’t have to mean they falter. Rather, we suppose a truly rising tide can lift more boats and the once yawning performance gap enjoyed by the few will better include the many. Stay tuned.


OK, “big fiscal” was cited as the other area that has evaded normalization’s grasp. Out of respect for our collective blood pressure we’ll skip the details. Deficits continue to run at ~6% of GDP, a high spot outside of war, crisis, or economic slump. Full employment and giant deficits are, historically speaking, strange bedfellows. What’s more, interest costs are now larger than total military spending. Just about everyone (including your humble wealth manager) agrees something must be done while simultaneously acknowledging the discouraging political realities in the Beltway. Forecasts from CBO, GAO, and professional economists alike aren’t uplifting. Sigh. But it isn’t all dire. Interest expense aside, much of the current outsized spending is flowing to productive uses, like the
first true “US industrial policy” in decades. We’re investing in our future and putting money to work on our own soil bestowing an assortment of longer run economic and national security benefits.


Bigger picture, the American system endures as the most innovative, dynamic, nimble, and resourceful economy on the planet. The finest universities, brightest minds, and most cutting-edge companies all reside here, not to mention the deepest and most efficient capital markets around. Combined, this is what Buffett calls the “American tailwind” – a force the now 94-year-old sage still believes will propel us onward in the generations to come. We concur. Although improved fiscal restraint is needed, an exercise with observable levers we can pull, forecasting any such fiscal normalization is difficult (too grand an ask for this author). Importantly, the path between here and there doesn’t have to be, and shouldn’t be, calamitous. And so our belief is that stock prices will continue to do what they’ve always done – track the general path of labor force demographics, economic growth, and business profits, all of which move up over time taking with them the enterprising long-term oriented investor.

Thanks for your continued trust in us.

Planners Corner by Anders Skagerberg

Should You Freeze Your Credit? A Simple Guide to Protecting Your Identity and Your Wealth

At a time when data breaches feel common, it’s natural to wonder if there’s anything you should do to protect your personal information and your hard-earned wealth. If you’ve ever heard about freezing your credit, you’re not alone—many people are asking whether it’s a good idea, especially with the recent data breach that may have included the personal records (names, addresses, Social Security numbers, and more) of up to 2.9 billion people.


So, if you’re wondering whether you should freeze your credit or not, read on to decide if it’s the right move for you.

But First, What Does Freezing Your Credit Mean?


Freezing your credit means putting a lock on your credit reports.

This stops identity thieves from opening new accounts in your name because creditors can’t check your credit report unless you “unfreeze” it. It’s like putting a padlock on a file—someone might try to access it, but unless they have the key, they won’t succeed.

Next, here are some of the key benefits to consider when freezing your credit:

The Upsides of Freezing Your Credit

  1. A Strong Defense Against Fraud: If your credit is frozen, thieves can’t open new credit lines, loans, or credit cards under your name.
  2. Peace of Mind: Knowing your credit is locked up can help you sleep better at night, especially if you’re already concerned about your financial security.
  3. No Harm to Your Credit Score: Freezing your credit doesn’t affect your score, so it’s a no-strings-attached way to add a layer of protection.
  4. Easy and Free: It’s free to freeze and unfreeze your credit with all three major bureaus—Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. And doing so is relatively simple and can be done online.

While freezing your credit offers a solid defense against fraud, peace of mind without harming your score, and is both easy and free, it’s important to consider the potential downsides.

The Downsides of Freezing Your Credit

  1. A Bit of a Hassle: If you’re planning on taking out a loan, mortgage, or even a new credit card, you’ll need to lift the freeze temporarily. It’s not hard, but it is one more thing to think about.
  2. Can Slow Down Some Transactions: Some things like getting utilities set up may require a credit check, so you’ll need to remember to unfreeze your credit for those too.
  3. Not a Cure-All: A credit freeze doesn’t stop all types of identity theft. It’s great for blocking new lines of credit but won’t protect you from other issues like tax fraud or someone getting into your existing
    accounts.

So, while freezing your credit is a proactive step to protect against identity theft, it can be somewhat inconvenient, may slow down certain transactions, and does not guard against all forms of fraud.

So, Should You Freeze Your Credit?


Ultimately, whether or not you should freeze your credit depends on your financial situation, your personal risk tolerance, and whether or not you’ve been involved in a security breach. Here are some questions to consider:

Have you been involved in a security breach?


If Not: Freezing your credit may not be a top priority. That said, even if you aren’t aware of a security breach involving your personal information, that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened.


If Yes: Freezing your credit can be a great step to help protect you from identity thieves.


Are You Applying for New Credit?


If Not: Freezing your credit might be a smart move, especially if you don’t foresee needing a new loan or credit card anytime soon.


If Yes: You’ll want to consider the hassle factor, especially if you’re in the middle of a major financial move like buying a new home.


What Other Protections Do You Have?


If you already have identity theft insurance or monitoring (or both) then freezing your credit can either be a great addition to your existing protection, or, you may decide it’s unnecessary, depending on your situation.


How Much Protection Do You Want?


Just like investing, everyone has a different comfort level with risk. That comfort level will guide your decision on whether to freeze your credit. But unlike investing, there’s really no advantage to taking extra risk by leaving your credit unlocked. Since freezing your credit is simple and comes with no downside, it’s often a smart move to just take the time and lock things down for peace of mind.


Part of a Bigger Picture


At Albion Financial Group, we believe that making smart decisions over time is key to securing your financial future. Freezing your credit can be one of those good decisions, but it should fit into a broader plan that includes monitoring your accounts, maintaining solid cybersecurity habits, and keeping tabs on your bigger financial picture, either on your own, or with the help of a trusted advisor.

Now, if you’ve decided that freezing your credit is the right choice, here’s what you need to do:

Meet the Three Major Credit Bureaus

When you decide to freeze your credit, you’ll need to do it with the three main credit bureaus:

  1. Equifax: One of the oldest and most recognized credit reporting agencies. Freezing your credit with Equifax is simple and can be done online.
  2. Experian: Known for their credit monitoring services, Experian also allows easy credit freezes. Their website walks you through the process stepby-step.
  3. TransUnion: Like the others, TransUnion’s freeze can be done quickly online.

Once you’ve got your credit freezes in place, just remember that you’ll need to unfreeze your credit when applying for any new loans, and then you can always refreeze it when you’re finished.


Important note: Freezing your credit with just one or two bureaus won’t fully protect you, as lenders can check any of the three major bureaus when reviewing credit applications. For complete protection, you should freeze your credit with all three agencies. In addition, while smaller agencies like Innovis, ChexSystems, and NCTUE may also hold some of your information, the majority of credit applications are processed through the three main bureaus, so freezing your credit with them will cover most scenarios.


Wrapping It All Up


In the end, deciding whether to freeze your credit is like deciding whether to put extra locks on your doors. It’s not necessary for everyone, but for those who want that extra peace of mind—especially with the recent data breach—it can be a wise choice.

ALBION COMMUNITY UPDATE



Conference Call: Scheduled for Tuesday, November 12th at 10 AM MT. Our expert panelists from the Advisor and Investment teams will discuss key issues and provide insights on the current economic and market landscape.


We highly value these moments to connect and share ideas with you. We encourage your participation and welcome any questions you may have—either live during the call or in advance by sending us an email. A recording
of the call will be available on our blog and YouTube channel afterwards, and a copy will be emailed to you. We hope you can join us. www.albionfinancial.com/events


New Faces

We are delighted to announce that Briana Mofhitz-Faieta and Leticia Chetty have both joined the firm as Associate Wealth Advisors. Both of them will be working closely with Liz Bernhard and Patrick Lundergan.


Briana is an alumna of the University of Oregon, while Leticia has degrees from both Brigham Young University – Hawaii and from Utah Valley University.


Also joining the Albion family, as a Financial Planner, is Heath Heavy. Heath is a graduate of Western Michigan University (Go Broncos!) and is a CFP®.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – September 27, 2024

Weekly Recap:

Fresh inflation data was supportive of the Fed’s decision to cut overnight interest rates by 50 basis points earlier this month. Headline and core PCE rose just 0.1% m/m in August, slightly below consensus expectations in both cases. Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) now stands at 2.7% y/y and remains on a disinflationary path towards the Fed’s 2% target.

US stock prices continue to benefit from the combination of falling inflation and healthy economic growth. The Dow closed at a fresh record high on Friday, while the S&P finished the week just a hair off an all-time high set on Thursday. The Nasdaq remains almost 3% off the highs set in early July. Meanwhile, small cap performance remains inconsistent as the market rally broadens in fits and starts.

Rates and credit spreads were stable last week, resulting in limited movement in bond prices. The MOVE Index (a measure of interest rate volatility) finished the week in the low-90s, near the bottom end of the 2+ year trading range that has persisted since the Fed began raising rates in early 2022.

In international news, Chinese stocks finished the week 4.5% higher after the announcement of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus from Beijing, aimed at countering the country’s flagging economic growth. The People’s Bank of China cut rates on existing mortgages by 0.5% and lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% in an effort to inject liquidity into the banking system. Meanwhile, the central government plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth 2 trillion yuan, to be spent on various subsidies meant to stimulate consumer spending.

Chart of the Week: US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (y/y change)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for low double-digit y/y growth in 2024, provided the economy continues to expand at its current rate.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21.4x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will deliver interest rate cuts in each of the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or below what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After becoming sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024, more recent data has reinforced the disinflationary trend, and the Fed has expressed confidence in the path to its 2% target. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – September 20, 2024

Weekly Recap:

Last week the FOMC finally launched its much-anticipated pivot, delivering a 50 basis point cut in what will clearly be the first of several reductions in overnight interest rates. How many additional cuts will be delivered, and over what period of time, remain topics of debate amongst market participants. In the official release and during the ensuing press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that despite the 50bp reduction (unusual outside of crisis situations), the US economy remains on solid footing in the eyes of the committee. Notably, Fed Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman dissented, issuing a short statement summarizing her view that with inflation currently above the Fed’s 2% target, a 25 basis point cut would have been more appropriate at this time.

Equity investors largely reacted with enthusiasm, as expected. The S&P 500 and the Dow set fresh all time highs on Thursday and Friday, respectively, thanks to notable strength in cyclicals and growth stocks. Small caps also enjoyed a tailwind.

Rates across much of the curve actually rose following the announcement, rather than falling as some might have expected. 10y Treasury yields ended the week 9bp higher while 30y yields finished up by 10bp, an indication that the bond market may have already fully priced the entire upcoming rate cutting cycle. Rising yields in the belly and long end are helping to restore the curve’s natural upward slope. Normalization in many parts of the economy (growth, margins, consumer, labor, etc.) has been a theme of the post-pandemic economy. As the Fed’s rate cutting cycle unfolds over the coming months, it appears that that theme may finally be applying to rates markets as well.

Chart of the Week: US Treasury 2s10s Yield Curve

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will deliver interest rate cuts in each of the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or below what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After becoming sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024, more recent data has reinforced the disinflationary trend, and the Fed has expressed confidence in the path to its 2% target. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Transferring Wealth: The Pros and Cons of Giving While You’re Alive vs After You’re Gone

Executive Summary

  • When transferring wealth, there are pros and cons to giving while you’re alive versus after you’ve passed.
  • For starters, transferring wealth after death ensures control during your lifetime and potential tax benefits after death, but may come too late to be truly impactful for your heirs.
  • Alternatively, gifting wealth during your lifetime allows you to see the positive effects and provides immediate support for your beneficiaries but could risk your financial security and possibly create financial dependence.
  • In the end, balancing these approaches involves considering tax implications, family dynamics, and your own financial security.

When it comes to transferring wealth, the default approach for most is to pass along an inheritance after you die, or give with a “cold hand.” And this makes sense in many ways, not only because of the tax benefits involved (your heirs can receive a favorable “step-up” in cost basis for certain assets) but also because it ensures that you still have access to your wealth while you’re alive—a key concern for many as people are living longer and medical costs are rising.

However, some financial experts argue that inheritances often come too late to be truly beneficial. Bill Perkins, author of “Die with Zero,” suggests that gifting money earlier, when it’s the most needed, can be a wise decision. He believes that waiting until after death to transfer wealth means missing the opportunity to see the positive impact your gifts can have and possibly delaying support until a time when it is less meaningful. 

In his book, Bill tells the story of a woman who had recently gone through a divorce and was struggling to make ends meet as a single mom. Decades later, after her financial situation had stabilized, she inherited a significant sum from her parents. Reflecting on that experience, Bill writes that she would have much rather received even a fraction of the money decades earlier when it would have had a major impact on her ability to make ends meet at a critical time. This example highlights the importance of timing and not waiting until it is too late to make a difference.

In this article, we will explore the pros and cons of giving with a “warm hand” and a “cold hand”. By considering different factors such as tax implications, family dynamics, timing, and your own financial security, our goal is to help you make an informed decision that aligns with your unique values, goals, and personal situation.


Giving With a Cold Hand

Simply put, giving with a cold hand means waiting to transfer your wealth until after you die.

First, let’s explore some of the benefits to this approach:

Pros of Giving with a Cold Hand

Here are some of the key benefits of waiting until after death to transfer your wealth:

Tax Benefits: One of the main advantages of waiting to transfer wealth until after your death is the potential for significant tax savings. Your heirs may benefit from a “step-up” in cost basis for certain assets, which can reduce capital gains taxes if they decide to sell the inherited assets. For example, if you bought stock for $20/share but it is now worth $100/share, typically if you sold the stock you would have to pay taxes on the gain of $80. But, if your heirs inherit the stock when it’s worth $100/share, the cost basis (the amount you paid for it) then shifts from $20 to the current market value of $100/share. The result is that if your heirs sold the stock immediately when they inherited it, there would be no taxable gain. 

Control and Security: By retaining your assets during your lifetime, you maintain total control over your wealth. This can provide peace of mind, knowing you have the necessary funds for any unexpected expenses or long-term care needs.

Legacy Planning: Waiting until after death to distribute your wealth can also allow for a more structured and planned approach. This can include setting up trusts with specific instructions to ensure your wealth is used and distributed for generations to come, according to your wishes.

Ultimately, there are some key benefits to giving after death as it can provide tax benefits for your heirs, allow for more control and security during your lifetime, and enable you to create a lasting legacy. 

Cons of Giving with a Cold Hand

Alternatively, here are some of the cons of giving with a cold hand:

No Immediate Benefit: First, a major drawback to this approach is that you won’t be able to witness the positive impact your wealth can have on your heirs right now, reducing the satisfaction you can get when transferring wealth.

Potential for Higher Taxes: Also, despite the tax benefits that can come from passing on assets after death, depending on the size of your estate and the current estate tax laws, your heirs might face significant estate taxes, which could reduce the amount of wealth they ultimately receive. Currently, with the lifetime exemption amount hovering around $13.61M per person (the amount you can transfer to your heirs free of estate taxes) this is not a huge consideration for many. That said, the current amount is set to expire on December 31st, 2025, and will be reduced to $5.6M per person if Congress does not extend the current laws. This is where smart financial planning can be critical as you navigate the complexities of estate taxes.

Family Disputes: Delaying the distribution of your wealth until after your death can sometimes lead to family disputes or conflicts over the inheritance, particularly if there are disagreements about your intentions or the terms of your will. Alternatively, by making gifts while you’re alive, your heirs can rest assured that your wishes are being carried out as you intended. 

Less Impactful Timing: As Perkins highlights, inheritances often come when recipients are already financially stable. On average, people receive inheritances around the age of 50, a time when many are already financially secure. Alternatively, many could have used the funds in their 30s or 40s as they were starting families, buying homes, and often paying off student loan debt.

In summary, while giving with a cold hand allows for tax benefits, control, and security during your lifetime, it means you won’t see the positive impact on your heirs and could lead to less impactful timing of the inheritance. Next, let’s explore “giving with a warm hand,” which involves making gifts during your lifetime to ensure your wealth benefits your loved ones when they need it most.


Giving with a Warm Hand

Giving with a warm hand is the concept of transferring wealth to your heirs while you are still alive.

This approach to estate planning goes against the traditional notion of passing down assets after death and instead focuses on sharing your wealth with loved ones during your lifetime. By giving with a warm hand, you can witness the impact of your generosity and ensure that your loved ones are financially secure and supported while you are still here. In some ways, it can also allow for more control over how your wealth is distributed today and can help minimize potential conflicts among heirs. 

Ultimately, for some, giving with a warm hand can allow for a more personal and fulfilling way of passing down wealth to future generations.

Pros of Giving with a Warm Hand

Immediate Impact: By gifting your wealth during your lifetime, you can see firsthand how your generosity benefits your heirs. This can be especially rewarding if the funds are used for meaningful purposes such as education, starting a business, or buying a home.

Tax Benefits: There are also certain tax advantages to gifting during your lifetime. For example, you can take advantage of the annual gift tax exclusion ($18,000 per person per year for 2024) and potentially reduce the size of your taxable estate, which could lower total estate taxes upon your death.

Strengthened Relationships: Providing financial support while you’re alive could also strengthen family bonds and foster a sense of gratitude and responsibility among your heirs. It also allows you to offer guidance and support in managing their inheritance.

More Meaningful Timing: As mentioned, by giving to your heirs in their 30s and 40s, you may be able to give financial support when they need it most – when starting a business, buying a home, or raising a family. This can make your gift even more meaningful and impactful for both you and your heirs.

Cons of Giving with a Warm Hand

While giving with a warm hand has many benefits, there are also potential drawbacks to consider:

Reduced Financial Security: Gifting substantial amounts of wealth during your lifetime can potentially compromise your financial security, especially if unexpected expenses arise or if you live longer than anticipated. That’s why it is critical to understand how much you need to sustain yourself throughout the rest of your life, build in a very conservative and healthy buffer, and ensure that you have adequate resources to cover yourself before giving away large sums of money.

Complexity: Lifetime gifting can also add complexity to your financial plan, especially when gifting different amounts to different beneficiaries over time, which may ultimately affect how you want the remainder of your wealth transferred after you pass. 

Dependency Risks: Of course, each situation is unique, but there’s a risk that your heirs may also become overly reliant on, or have an ongoing expectation of your financial support, which could hinder their ability to manage their own finances independently. 

In the end, giving with a warm hand involves transferring wealth to your heirs while you are still alive, allowing you to witness the positive impact and provide support when it is most needed. Though it can foster stronger family bonds and offer tax benefits, it requires careful planning to avoid compromising your financial security and creating dependency among your heirs.


Deciding Which Approach is Right for You


Ultimately, understanding your family’s dynamics and financial needs is crucial when deciding how and when to transfer your wealth. Remember, personal finance is personal, and there’s no one-size-fits-all approach.

Fortunately, open communication with your heirs about your intentions and their needs can help prevent misunderstandings and conflicts. Additionally, consulting with a trusted professional is essential to navigate the complex tax landscape associated with transferring your wealth, both before and after death. They can help you understand the tax benefits and drawbacks of both lifetime gifting and bequests. 

And of course, ensuring your own financial security should be a top priority, so working with a wealth advisor to create a comprehensive plan that helps you understand how much money you need to be secure is essential. 

Finally, remember that there are benefits to both approaches, and for some, it may be best to do a little bit of both, rather than focusing exclusively on one approach or the other. As an example, this could mean making annual tax-free gifts to your heirs during your lifetime while still transferring a larger sum after you pass.


In The End

In the end, whether you choose to give with a ‘warm hand’ or a ‘cold hand,’ thoughtful planning, open communication, and professional advice are key. 

By carefully considering the pros and cons, as well as the unique needs of your family, you can create a wealth transfer strategy that provides meaningful support to your heirs while ensuring your own financial security. 

Ultimately, the best approach is the one that aligns with your values and helps you achieve your unique financial goals.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.


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Weekly Market Recap – September 6, 2024

Weekly Recap:

September is a notoriously difficult month for stocks, and so far 2024 has been no exception thanks to lingering concerns about the strength of the US economy. The S&P 500 fell every day last week and finished down more than 4%, while a rout in technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq to a nearly 6% decline. Small caps also struggled and continue to lag well behind large caps on a YTD basis.

Soft labor market data is partly to blame. Last week’s updates point to continued normalization of labor supply and demand, leaving open the question as to whether the Fed’s inflation-fighting campaign may yet cause the economy to overshoot to the downside. Per the JOLTS report, US job openings have fallen by roughly 1/2 million in the past two months as demand for labor weakens. The ADP employment report showed a net increase of just 99k payrolls, the lowest monthly total since January of 2021, before Covid-19 vaccines were widely available. And finally, nonfarm payrolls from the BLS (142k) came in slightly below consensus (165k), while the prior two months were revised lower by a combined 86k.

Yields fell across the curve in response, particularly in the front end as markets priced in an increasingly aggressive rate cutting campaign, including 4 or 5 cuts of 25bp prior to year-end across just 3 FOMC meetings. As a result of falling short term yields, the 2s10s curve went and stayed positive for the first time since it originally inverted in July of 2022. It is likely that over the next 18-24 months, the “normalization” theme that has applied to so much of the post-pandemic economy over the past couple years will finally begin to apply to the yield curve as well, gradually restoring its natural upward slope.

Chart of the Week: Nonfarm Payrolls Total Net Change (m/m, SA)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 20.6x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Understanding Employee Stock Options

Executive Summary:

  • Employee stock options allow employees to purchase company stock at a fixed price, offering potential gains if the stock price goes up.
  • There are two main types of stock options: Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) with favorable tax treatment and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs) with more flexibility but less favorable tax treatment.
  • Key considerations for managing stock options include understanding the vesting schedule, timing of exercise, tax implications, concentration risk, market conditions, and aligning with your financial goals.
  • Lastly, consulting with trusted advisors is critical to making informed decisions and maximizing the benefits of your stock options.

Employee stock options are a powerful tool used by many companies to attract, retain, and motivate employees. 

At a high level, they provide employees with the opportunity to purchase company stock at a fixed price, potentially leading to big gains if the stock price goes up. Many well-known companies, like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, use stock options, including both Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs), to align employee interests with company performance. 

But, it’s not just large publicly traded companies that offer stock options. Many startups and small businesses use stock options as an attractive alternative to high salaries to conserve cash and reward early employees.

If you have stock options, understanding how they work and how to manage them effectively can help you make smart decisions and maximize the benefits they can provide.


First, What are Employee Stock Options?

Employee stock options are contracts that grant employees the right to buy a specific number of shares of the company’s stock at a predetermined price, known as the exercise or strike price, after a certain period known as the vesting period. These options typically have an expiration date, by which time they must be exercised or they will expire. Stock options provide employees with the potential to become shareholders in the company and benefit from its success.

Stock Option Example: 

As an example, a typical stock option might give an employee the right to purchase 1,000 shares of the company’s stock at a strike price of $50 per share. If the stock price rises above $50, the employee can exercise their options and buy 1,000 shares at that lower price, effectively making a profit. Then, employees can decide whether to hold onto the stock or sell it for a profit.

Alternatively, if the stock price drops below $50, the employee can simply choose to wait, either until the price goes up beyond the strike price, or until the options expire, avoiding any potential loss.


Two Main Types of Employee Stock Options

When it comes to stock options, there are two main types: Incentive Stock Options (ISOs) and Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs).

What are Incentive Stock Options (ISOs)?

Incentive stock options are company stock options granted to employees that may provide tax benefits if certain conditions are met.

  • Tax Advantages: ISOs offer favorable tax treatment if certain conditions are met. When employees exercise ISOs, they do not have to pay regular income tax on the difference between the exercise price and the fair market value of the stock. Instead, this difference, known as the “bargain element,” is subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Then, if the shares are held for at least one year after exercise and two years after the grant date, any gain on the sale of the shares is taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rate.
  • Eligibility: ISOs can only be granted to employees (not to directors, contractors, or consultants).

Ultimately, ISOs can be a valuable tool for both employers and employees. They can serve as a way to incentivize and reward top-performing employees, while also providing tax benefits for both parties. But, because there’s a layer of complexity involved in receiving favorable tax treatment, it’s essential to consult with a trusted advisor before executing your options.

What are Non-Qualified Stock Options (NQSOs)?

Non-qualified stock options are a type of employee stock option that allows employees to purchase company stock at a fixed price, with fewer restrictions and no special tax benefits compared to incentive stock options.

  • Tax Treatment: NQSOs do not qualify for special tax treatments. When employees exercise NQSOs, the difference between the exercise price and the fair market value of the stock is taxed as ordinary income at their highest marginal rate. This amount is also subject to payroll taxes. Then, any subsequent gain or loss upon selling the stock is treated as capital gain or loss.
  • Flexibility: NQSOs can be granted to employees, directors, contractors, and others, providing greater flexibility for the company.

Ultimately, NQSOs can be a valuable tool for companies looking to attract and retain top talent, even without the same tax benefits as ISOs. By offering employees the opportunity to purchase company stock at a discounted price, NQSOs can act as a powerful incentive for them to perform well and contribute to the company’s success.


Key Considerations for Managing Stock Options

When it comes to your stock options, planning is key. Here are some important considerations to keep in mind when managing your stock options:

  1. Vesting Schedule: Understand the vesting schedule of your options. Vesting determines when you can exercise your options and purchase the shares. Options typically vest over a period of time, such as four years, with a portion of the options vesting each year.
  1. Exercise Timing: Deciding when to exercise your options can have significant implications. For example, when exercising ISOs, many try to avoid exercising during a year with high income to minimize the alternative minimum tax (AMT) implications. In addition, there are certain rules to consider, such as not exercising more than $100,000 in ISOs in a given year AND the 10-year time limit to exercise your options from the grant date.
  1. Tax Implications: Consult a tax advisor to understand the tax consequences of exercising and selling stock options. The timing of your exercise and sale, as well as the type of option (ISO or NQSO), can significantly impact your tax liability.
  1. Concentration Risk: While stock options can provide substantial financial rewards, they also carry risk. Relying too heavily on company stock (when you already rely on them for a paycheck) can expose you to significant financial risk if the company’s stock price falls or the business falters. Diversifying your investment portfolio is crucial to managing this risk.
  1. Market Conditions: Consider the current market conditions and the performance of your company when deciding to exercise and sell your options. While no one knows what the future holds, it’s wise to weigh everything you know about the company with what you know about the current state of the market as market volatility can affect the value of your stock options.
  1. Financial Goals: Align your stock option strategy with your overall financial goals. Whether you plan to use the proceeds for retirement, buying a home, or other financial objectives, having a clear plan can guide your decisions.

These are just a few of the key considerations to keep in mind when it comes to managing your stock options. As always, it is important to consult with a trusted professional for personalized advice based on your unique situation.

Remember that stock options can be a valuable asset but also come with potential risks and complexities. By understanding the basics and carefully considering your options, you can make informed decisions that align with your financial goals.


Conclusion

In the end, employee stock options can be a valuable component of your compensation that can lead to significant gains if managed wisely. Understanding the different types of options, their tax implications, and the strategies for exercising and selling them is essential. By considering these factors and consulting with trusted advisors, you can make informed decisions that align with your unique goals and risk tolerance.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 23, 2024

Weekly Recap:

The Fed was once again in focus last week, and financial markets were not disappointed. First came the minutes from the July FOMC meeting, which included the following summation of the committee’s current outlook:

“The vast majority of participants observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”

Next up was Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday, where the Fed Chair essentially declared victory in the fight against inflation, noting:

“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic.”

Bond prices rose as rates moved lower across the curve in response to these statements, while futures markets continue to debate whether the September rate cut will be just 25 basis points (~70% implied probability) or a full 50 basis points (~30% chance).

Equities of all stripes were higher as well, with notable strength in small caps and cyclicals (ex energy) as the rally in stocks once again showed signs of broadening out beyond its mega cap tech base.

Chart of the Week: Fed Funds Target Rate (lower) with Implied Fwd Rates

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.


Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – August 16, 2024

Weekly Recap:

Macro data released last week, while somewhat mixed, was generally supportive of the soft landing narrative.

Inflation data came in below expectations, bolstering rate cut confidence:

* PPI dropped to +2.2% y/y (consensus = +2.3%; prior month = +2.7%)

* CPI dropped to +2.9% y/y (consensus = +3.0%; prior month = +2.9%)

Labor market and consumer-related data remained solid:

* Initial jobless claims eased lower for a 2nd straight week, to 227k

* Retail sales rose +1.0% m/m in July (consensus = +0.4%)

* U of Michigan consumer sentiment rose slightly to 67.8 in prelim August data

Manufacturing and housing remain challenged, but so far that has not tipped the broader economy into recession and may not derail the soft landing outcome:

* Empire manufacturing remained in contraction territory at -4.7 for August

* Industrial production fell 0.6% m/m and capacity utilization fell to 77.8% in July

* Housing starts fell 6.8% sequentially in July to a SAAR of 1,353k

* Residential building permits fell 4.0% sequentially in July to a SAAR of 1,396k

Amidst this slew of macro data, the S&P 500 registered gains each day last week, with all sectors finishing the week in positive territory. The Nasdaq outperformed on renewed strength in mega cap tech stocks. In fixed income, rates fell modestly in the belly and long end of the curve as the market finds a new equilibrium after the flight-to-safety trade in early August. Credit spreads tightened during the week on renewed risk appetite, pushing corporate bond prices higher.

Chart of the Week: Consumer Price Index by Component (y/y change)

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. Analysts are forecasting low double digit EPS growth in 2024; growth of that magnitude will depend on the economy avoiding recession.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits.

Interest Rates

Futures markets imply that the Fed will enact multiple interest rate cuts across the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, with additional cuts in 2025. Belly and long end rates are already at or near what are likely to be their post-pandemic equilibrium levels, unless the US economy enters a recession.

Inflation

After falling rapidly in late 2022 and all of 2023, inflation became sticky in the 3-4% range in the first half of 2024. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs. Volatile energy prices driven by geopolitical conflicts could present a risk to the inflation outlook.


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