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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap 2021-05-21Download

Weekly Recap:
Equities were mixed last week. In the US, traditional defensives rose,
including real estate, healthcare, and utilities. Technology stocks were mixed, while cyclically sensitive sectors were lower. Small and midcap indices were also down on the week, while major international indices finished higher.

Despite some day to day volatility, bond markets finished close to where
they started. Benchmark 10y US Treasury yields ended the week 1bp lower,
while 30y yields fell 2bp on the week. Investment grade credit spreads were
stable, keep corporate and muni bond prices essentially unchanged.

After setting a new pandemic-era high during the previous week, oil pulled
back on concerns that supply from Iran could return to the market if
sanctions are eased.

Cryptocurrency markets experienced wild price swings coupled with service outages at multiple exchanges after China signaled it would increase
regulatory oversight of crypto mining. Bitcoin finished the week down by
nearly 30%, and extended the selloff over the weekend.

Forward-looking economic news was positive: residential building permits
remained strong, initial jobless claims fell to fresh pandemic lows, and the
Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose to an all-time high on a y/y basis. See the Chart of the Week for a time series

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

*Economy & Earnings – GDP growth was +6.4% annualized in Q1 2021, and is forecast to accelerate to +8.1% in Q2. Meanwhile, EPS for the S&P 500 turned positive y/y in Q4 2020 and will rise significantly y/y in Q1 2021 as the economy laps the onset of the pandemic.

*Equity Valuation – the S&P 500’s forward P/E of 22x is above the historical average, and long-term valuation metrics like CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) suggest that compound annual returns over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits. That said, lower equity returns may be justified in the context of ultra-low yields on alternatives like bonds and cash.

*Interest Rates – Rates remain low by historical standards despite recent
volatility, supporting equity valuations and lowering borrowing costs.

*Inflation – After staving off deflation early in the pandemic, the Fed has
communicated tolerance for short periods of above-target inflation. A
cyclical bump in inflation may occur in 2021 as pent-up demand is released, testing the Fed’s resolve, but we do not expect higher inflation to persist.

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap 20210402Download

Equities posted solid returns last week, led by large cap technology stocks. The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on Thursday, closing above 4,000 for the first time.

Rates were fairly subdued last week. The Treasury curve flattened modestly, pivoting around the 10-year point, with 2y yields higher by 5bp while 30y yields fell by 2bp. Credit spreads tightened in sympathy with the broader rally in risk assets, allowing corporate bonds to post solid gains.

Oil and the US dollar were both stronger on the week.

Incoming economic data was encouraging. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply to 109.7, and the ISM Manufacturing Index surged to 64.7, both of which represent pandemic highs.

Friday’s monthly payroll report was also very strong:

* Nonfarm payrolls = +916k (largest monthly gain since August 2020)

* U-3 Unemployment = 6.0% (fell 0.2% sequentially)

* U-6 Underemployment = 10.7% (fell 0.4% sequentially)

* Labor Force Participation Rate = 61.5% (rose 0.1% sequentially)

* Average Weekly Hours Worked = 34.9 (rose 0.3 hrs sequentially)

Weekly Market Recap 20210402Download
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Weekly Market Recap

Weeky Market Recap 20210226Download

Last week’s market action was dominated by interest rates. Treasury yields rose throughout February, at an accelerating pace that peaked on Thursday as 10-year yields briefly exceeded 1.6% intraday. The trend finally broke on Friday, with 10-year yields pulling back to around 1.4%, but interest rate volatility remains high. The CBOE Interest Rate Volatility Index (which measures implied volatility on interest rate swaptions) closed the week just shy of 78, the highest level in the past 3+ years outside of a few days in March of 2020. See the Chart of the Week for details.

The high levels of interest rate volatility are being driven by inflation concerns and questions about the forward path of Fed policy. These concerns were a headwind for stocks last week, particularly longer duration equities like large cap tech and emerging markets. Nearly all sectors in the S&P 500 finished the week lower, the lone exception being energy stocks which continued to perform well thanks to rising oil prices.

Economic news last week was positive (perhaps too much so for rates markets). The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and its Consumer Confidence Index both registered sequential gains, while initial and continuing jobless claims both came in lower than expected. And there was more good news on the virus front, as the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine.

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

*Economy & Earnings – The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index estimates real-time GDP growth to be -3.3% y/y. Growth is expected to be modest early in 2021, and pick up in the second half of the year.

*Equity Valuation – at 22x forward earnings the S&P is certainly not cheap, and long-term valuation metrics like CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) suggest that compound annual returns over the coming decade are likely to be in the single digits. That said, lower equity returns may be justified in the context of ultra-low yields on alternatives like bonds and cash.

*Interest Rates – Rates remain low by historical standards despite recent volatility, supporting equity valuations and lowering borrowing costs.

*Inflation – After staving off deflation early in the pandemic, the Fed has communicated tolerance for short periods of above-target inflation. A cyclical bump in inflation may occur in 2021 as pent-up demand is released, testing the Fed’s resolve, but we do not expect higher inflation to persist.

Weeky Market Recap 20210226Download
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Weekly Market Recap

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US equities were mixed last week. Large cap cyclicals rose, including energy, financials, materials, and industrials, pushing the Dow to a record high during Wednesday’s session. However, sectors like technology, communications, and healthcare finished lower, resulting in small losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Small and midcap US stocks were also down slightly, while international stock indices managed to eke out small gains.

Last week’s most prominent market action was in rates, as Treasury yields moved higher on the back of PPI inflation and retail sales figures that blew past consensus estimates. The 10-year finished the week at 1.34% (+13bp w/w), while the 30-year closed at 2.13% (+12bp w/w). Credit spreads compressed slightly, particularly in high yield, but not enough to prevent price declines across most spread-oriented sectors of the bond market.

Oil finally took a pause, finishing slightly lower on Friday after trading above $60/barrel (WTI) for most of the week. Market participants are anticipating a rise in OPEC+ production, and a short-term drop in demand as refineries take time to recover from freezing weather across much of the southern US.

In other economic news, weekly jobless claims remained range-bound, while residential building permits rose to a fresh 15-year high of 1.88 million (SAAR), a positive sign for housing and the broader economy in 2021. See the Chart of the Week for a time series.

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Weekly Market Recap

Every Monday morning, download our Weekly Market Recap for Commentary and Data, with Economy and Earnings, Equity Valuation, Interest Rates, and Inflation, including infographic charts.

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