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Five Smart Strategies to Maximize Your Retirement Income

Jar labeled "Retirement" filled with dollar bills and coins, symbolizing retirement savings.
Maximizing your retirement income begins with intentional saving and strategic planning.

Executive Summary

Creating a reliable income stream in retirement takes more than just saving—it requires strategy. In this post, we’ll walk through five smart ways to get the most out of what you’ve built:

  • Get the most from Social Security. When you file matters. Understanding your options—including spousal and survivor benefits—can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars over time.
  • Withdraw your money tax-efficiently. Where you pull income from each year can impact how much you keep. Coordinating withdrawals across taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free accounts can stretch your savings and lower your tax bill.
  • Do an annual tax check-up. Your income and the tax rules change every year. Reviewing your situation regularly opens up opportunities—like Roth conversions or tax-smart charitable giving—that can save you money long-term.
  • Watch for policy updates. Shifts in tax law, Medicare premiums, or Social Security rules can affect your plan. Stay informed so you can adjust before small changes become costly surprises.
  • Keep your plan flexible. Life doesn’t follow a spreadsheet. Revisiting your retirement strategy regularly ensures it still fits your goals, your lifestyle, and whatever life throws your way.

In many ways, approaching retirement is like climbing a new mountain. The view at the top is worth the climb—but the journey has its own steep terrain, loose footing, and changing weather to navigate along the way.

Retirement is no different. 

On the one hand, it marks the beginning of a new and exciting chapter, powered by the ability to do what you want, when you want, with the people you want, for as long as you want (which as best selling personal finance author Morgan Housel says: “Is the best dividend that exists in finance.”) But, on the other hand, it also brings unique challenges and unknowns. 

And one of those unknowns is the reality that once you retire, you can no longer rely on your job for a paycheck. Instead, you must create that retirement paycheck on your own, often drawing on multiple accounts (each with unique tax considerations) and income sources (some guaranteed, and some not) to fund your life. 

If you’re within five years of retiring, it’s also worth reviewing the three critical steps to prepare for retirement to make sure you’re laying the right groundwork—financially, emotionally, and logistically.

In this article, we’ll explore five smart strategies to maximize your retirement income and help you reduce uncertainty as you head into your golden years.

Strategy #1: Squeeze All The Juice Out Of Social Security

When it comes to retirement income, Social Security is one of the most important decisions you’ll make. And like most things in financial planning, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer—the right filing strategy depends on your overall financial picture, your health, and your goals.

Start by understanding your Full Retirement Age (FRA)—the age at which you’re entitled to your full benefit. For most people retiring today, FRA falls between 66 and 67, depending on your birth year. If you file early (as soon as age 62), your benefit will be permanently reduced—up to 30% lower if you start right at 62. If you delay filing past FRA, your benefit increases by about 8% for each year you wait, maxing out at age 70. Over time, the difference between claiming early and waiting can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars, especially if you live a long life.

Timing is even more critical if you’re married.

Spousal benefits allow a lower-earning spouse to receive up to 50% of the higher earner’s benefit. To claim spousal benefits, the higher-earning spouse must file first, and filing before FRA reduces the spousal benefit as well. In addition, when one spouse passes away, the surviving spouse keeps the higher of the two benefits. That means if the higher earner delays filing, it can increase the surviving spouse’s income for life—a critical consideration for couples where one partner is expected to outlive the other.

It’s also helpful to understand your breakeven age—the point at which the total value of delaying benefits surpasses what you would have received by claiming early. For many retirees, the breakeven point falls between age 77 and 83, depending on your benefit amount and filing strategy. If you’re healthy and expect to live well into your 80s or beyond, delaying could be the better move. But if you have health concerns or need income sooner, filing earlier may be the more practical choice.

Ultimately, Social Security is just one piece of your retirement paycheck—but it’s a foundational one. It offers inflation-adjusted, guaranteed income for life, and in many cases, it can act as a buffer that helps protect you during market downturns. The key is to evaluate the tradeoffs, understand how the rules apply to your situation, and make a decision that fits into the broader context of your financial plan. If you’re not sure which path makes the most sense, working with a financial advisor can help you “squeeze all the juice” out of this critical benefit.

Strategy #2. Implement a Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategy

One of the most overlooked ways to maximize your retirement income is by carefully managing where your withdrawals come from each year. Most retirees have a mix of account types—traditional IRAs and 401(k)s (tax-deferred), Roth IRAs (tax-free), and brokerage accounts (taxable). Each of these is taxed differently, and the order in which you draw from them can have a big impact on your lifetime tax bill. For instance, early in retirement, you might lean more on taxable accounts and strategically convert IRA dollars to Roth while your income is relatively low.

Later on, Roth accounts can also provide tax-free income in years when your taxable income is already high, helping you stay below key income threshholds.

For example, imagine a retiree who needs to withdraw an extra $15,000 to cover a large one-time expense. If they take the money from their IRA, it increases their taxable income—not only pushing more of their Social Security into the taxable range but also reducing or eliminating subsidies they’re receiving through the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In some cases, that $15,000 withdrawal could result in thousands of dollars in additional taxes and lost benefits. But if that same amount is withdrawn from a taxable brokerage account or Roth IRA, where only a portion is subject to capital gains tax or completely tax-free, the impact might be far less severe. Coordinating withdrawals with your broader tax and healthcare situation can make a significant difference in how long your portfolio lasts.

It’s a common belief that retirees should draw from taxable accounts first, then tax-deferred, and finally tax-free. But as the example below from Fidelity shows, a more balanced approach—pulling proportionally from each type—can lead to dramatically lower taxes over time.

How Withdrawal Order Affects Your Lifetime Tax Bill

Comparison of traditional vs. proportional retirement withdrawal strategies showing a 39% estimated tax reduction when withdrawing proportionally from taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-exempt accounts.
Source: Fidelity Investments

It’s also important to plan around Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs), which begin at age 73 for most retirees (and 75 for those born in 1960 or later). If your traditional retirement accounts are large, those RMDs can create an income spike that pushes you into a higher bracket. Planning ahead by “filling up” lower brackets with partial Roth conversions in your 60s—or withdrawing pre-RMD strategically—can help smooth your tax picture over time. A withdrawal plan isn’t static; it needs to evolve with tax laws and your spending needs.

Strategy #3. Review Your Tax Situation Each Year

Taxes don’t disappear in retirement—they just change form.

Each year, retirees make decisions that can either add up to thousands in unnecessary taxes or lead to years of meaningful tax savings. A yearly review can help you evaluate whether it makes sense to realize capital gains in a low-income year, offset gains with tax-loss harvesting, or accelerate deductions through charitable giving. Retirement often opens up new opportunities for tax savings, especially if you’re no longer earning wages. You may now qualify for deductions like high medical expenses or be able to take advantage of tax-efficient giving strategies such as Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) once you reach age 70½.

One powerful strategy to evaluate each year is Roth conversions. These can be especially impactful in the early years of retirement—after you’ve stopped working but before RMDs and Social Security kick in. By intentionally converting portions of a traditional IRA to a Roth while your taxable income is low, you can pay tax at a lower rate now and reduce the size of future RMDs. Doing this over multiple years can create a more balanced tax picture and lower your lifetime tax bill.

The key is that these decisions require foresight—once the year ends, many tax planning opportunities disappear.

Strategy #4. Stay On Top Of New Changes

Retirement planning doesn’t end when you stop working—it evolves constantly.

Tax laws, Social Security rules, RMD ages, and Medicare premiums are all subject to change, and even small tweaks can have a ripple effect on your income. For example, recent legislation (like the SECURE Act and its sequel) has already changed RMD ages and beneficiary rules for inherited IRAs. COLA adjustments to Social Security can bump up income, which in turn might affect your tax bracket or Medicare premiums.

Staying informed helps you make timely decisions and avoid unintended tax consequences.

Medicare premiums, in particular, are often misunderstood. They’re income-based, so if your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) crosses certain thresholds—even by a dollar—you could end up paying hundreds more per month in IRMAA surcharges. That’s where smart tax planning and withdrawal coordination comes in. In some years, it will be essential to know where you are drawing income from and how it will affect your tax picture.

Keeping up with these rule changes doesn’t mean you have to become an expert—but it does mean revisiting your plan each year and adapting as needed.

Strategy #5. Review and Adjust Your Plan Along The Way

Your financial plan is a living document, not a one-and-done checklist.

Retirement is full of curveballs—markets shift, health events arise, family needs change, and your personal goals may evolve too. That’s why it’s so important to revisit your plan annually to make sure it still fits your life. Even small changes, like a new travel goal or deciding to downsize your home, can impact your income needs, investment allocation, and withdrawal strategy. And on the flip side, major unexpected events—like supporting an adult child or dealing with long-term care—can require deeper recalibration.

Annual financial check-ups are a great time to review your current cash flow, make sure your spending plan still aligns with your values, assess your emergency reserves, and rebalance your portfolio if needed. It’s also a good time to run “what if” scenarios—What if the market dips next year? What if you live to age 100? What if you want to give more during life? These reviews don’t just provide peace of mind—they help you stay proactive instead of reactive. Flexibility is one of the most valuable assets in retirement. The more willing you are to course-correct along the way, the more resilient—and fulfilling—your retirement will be.

Retirement isn’t just about income strategies—it’s about enjoying the life you’ve worked hard to build. For ideas on how to live your golden years with purpose and intention, check out our post on How to Make the Most of Your Golden Years.

In the end, retirement can be an exciting and rewarding phase of life, but it requires careful planning and ongoing adjustments to maximize your income and reduce uncertainty. By implementing these five strategies—maximizing Social Security, drawing income tax-efficiently, reviewing your taxes annually, staying informed about key changes, and staying flexible—you can reduce uncertainty and build a more confident retirement.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Should You Aim to Die With No Money Left? Bill Perkins, Hedge Fund Manager and Author, Explains Why

Scenic view of a beach along the Oregon coast, featuring trees, cliffs, and vibrant blue waters.

Executive Summary:

  • Maximizing Enjoyment of Wealth: In his book, Die With Zero, author Bill Perkins argues that the goal should be to maximize the enjoyment from your money while you’re alive, not just amass the most wealth.
  • Memory Dividends: Perkins introduces the concept of “memory dividends,” where the value of experiences grows over time, just like your investments. These experiences provide lasting memories, fulfillment, and enjoyment long after they happen.
  • Rethinking Wealth: Rather than focusing solely on maximizing net worth, Perkins advocates for investing in meaningful experiences earlier in life, when you’re healthy and able to enjoy them.
  • Balancing Enjoyment with Financial Security: While embracing Perkins’ philosophy, it’s critical to balance living for today with ensuring long-term financial security. This includes strategies like understanding safe withdrawal rates and doing ongoing retirement planning.
  • Give While Alive: Lastly, Perkins suggests passing wealth to heirs earlier in life when they need it most, rather than waiting until after death.

What if the goal of retirement wasn’t to leave behind the most money, but to maximize the enjoyment you get from your money while you still can?

In Bill Perkin’s book, Die With Zero: Getting All You Can From Your Money and Your Life, he challenges ‘traditional wealth management’ by calling for a more intentional approach to spending wealth throughout your life. Instead of focusing solely on maximizing wealth or leaving a large inheritance, Perkins encourages people to use their money to maximize meaningful experiences while they are still healthy (and alive) and able to enjoy them. 

Central to Bill’s philosophy is the idea of investing in experiences (not just assets) that create lasting memories, or “memory dividends,” that provide ongoing value and fulfillment. Funny enough, Bill argues that just like traditional investing, investing in experiences is more valuable the younger you are, as it gives you extra years for those memories to “compound”, maximizing the total lifetime benefit you get from each experience. 

To understand memory dividends, Bill writes: 

“Think back to one of the best vacations you ever had, and let’s say it lasted a full week. Now think about how much time you spent showing pictures of that trip to your friends back home. Add to that all the times you and the people you traveled with reminisced about that trip, and all the times you’ve thought about it yourself or given advice to other people considering going on a similar trip. All those residual experiences from the original experience are the dividends I’m talking about—they’re your memory dividends, and they add up.”

In other words, memory dividends are the additional benefits we receive from our experiences long after they have ended. 

The concept of memory dividends is a powerful one, as it encourages us to not only focus on investing to build wealth but also investing in experiences to build memories and enrich our lives. And these days, Perkins’ philosophy is gaining attention as more people want to balance living for the moment, while still setting themselves up for the future. 

In this article, I want to layer my skills, views, and philosophies as a Financial Advisor on top of Bill’s philosophy of squeezing all the enjoyment out of your money while you can. Of course, I’m not advocating literally dying with no money left, as I believe that’s the opposite of what most people should be aiming for. But, I do believe there’s a strong case to be made for maximizing the enjoyment you get from your money while you’re still alive. 

Let’s walk through that case together, starting with me and my awesome wife, Paige.

My Personal Experience With Memory Dividends

When my wife and I met, we were in our mid-20s, both working full-time, but with very little responsibility outside of our jobs (her as a receptionist at a medical office and me as an electrician). In other words, no kids, no pets, no mortgage – just a couple of young, working, and relatively unburdened people.

We were avid rock climbers at the time and would do a lot of weekend trips around the state – shout out to Utah and its collection of wonderful rocks! Naturally, we started to wonder how it would be for us to take a bigger trip, exploring crags all around the US. Maybe a couple of weeks, maybe longer? 

One thing led to another, and the adventurous Paige decided it might be better for us to think bigger and spend a month and a half traveling around Europe, exploring the crags and sites abroad. 

And so we did.

I didn’t realize it at the time, but that trip would create some of our fondest memories, contain some of the most unique experiences of our lives (homesteading on a small farm in Italy), and most importantly, (at least for now) would be once in a lifetime. That’s not to say we couldn’t ever travel to Europe for an extended period again, but, I don’t anticipate we’d be interested in traveling like we did: climbing gear and backpacks in tow, cheap Airbnbs, hostels, and even free accommodations through work exchange programs, all while flying by the seat of our pants with a loose (at best) itinerary.

When it was all said and done, we traveled for six weeks, visited four beautiful countries – Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, and Italy – and climbed rocks in some of the most striking places we’ve ever seen. 

Fast forward to today and we’re in our 30’s, with a couple of young kids, and a ton more responsibility. We can’t travel like we did then without significantly disrupting our lives. But what we do have is the memory dividends from that ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ experience we created together. 

Of course, from a financial perspective, we didn’t maximize our net worth with our decision to quit our jobs and travel around Europe. Instead, the trip probably cost us thousands of dollars at the time. But, it’s some of the best money we’ve ever spent, and it’s the reason I feel so aligned with Bill’s idea to maximize the enjoyment you get from your money while you can. 

Now, let’s explore what that can look like for you.

What “Die With Zero” Really Means

Perkins’ concept of “Die With Zero” is not about spending down every last penny but rather about rethinking the purpose of wealth. He argues that too many people hoard their money with a focus on leaving a large inheritance or simply out of fear of running out. Instead, Perkins advocates for a strategic approach to spending—one that maximizes enjoyment and fulfillment during your lifetime. 

His core message is that money can’t bring you joy once you’re gone, so the goal should be to use it while you’re alive to create meaningful experiences.

Again, the idea of “memory dividends” is central to this philosophy. Perkins believes that experiences, particularly those created earlier in life, provide a lifetime of return on investment. Just like Paige and I’s trip to Europe, the memories from these experiences grow more valuable over time, much like financial dividends, enriching our lives with each passing year. 

So it’s not about spending your money for the sake of spending it, it’s about using it to enrich your life by doing the things you love, with the people you care about the most. Sounds great, right? But what about the risks?

The Risks of Literally Dying With Zero

While Perkins’ philosophy encourages maximizing enjoyment during your lifetime, it’s important to acknowledge the risks. 

Running out of money in retirement can be a serious concern, especially if you live longer than anticipated or face unexpected expenses. Healthcare costs, in particular, can be unpredictable and significantly impact your financial situation in later years.

That’s why outliving your money is a key consideration in financial planning. 

So, while it’s essential to enjoy your money during your life, it’s also critical to build a plan that ensures your needs will be covered for as long as you live. This might involve strategies such as utilizing safe withdrawal rates or running annual retirement projections to ensure that you are on track for success, and fine-tuning your plan as needed.

So, while Perkins’ philosophy is thought-provoking, it must be balanced with the practical realities of long-term financial security.

How You Can Maximize Enjoyment of Your Money

To fully embrace Perkins’ philosophy requires a mindset shift, and here are some examples to consider:

  • Don’t delay: Instead of exclusively waiting until retirement to enjoy your wealth, consider spending on meaningful experiences throughout your working years – possibly through a sabbatical or other extended time off.
  • Earmark funds: Next, just like you earmark funds for an upcoming purchase or investment, consider earmarking funds each year to spend on experiences.  
  • Identify Optimal Experience Timing: When it comes to experiences, it’s critical to realize that not every experience is available (or desirable) at every age. For example, most people can’t or don’t want to go heli skiing in their 90s, so it’s critical to do that experience while you still can. 

Again, balancing experience-driven spending with security is crucial. While it’s great to spend money doing the things you love with the people you love, it’s also essential to invest for the future, understand safe distribution rates, and have a plan for future needs. 

A well-thought-out strategy can help you make the most of your money while ensuring you don’t jeopardize your long-term financial stability.

But What About the Kids?

In his book, Bill has an entire chapter dedicated to the question he says always comes up: “Sure, this sounds great, but what about the kids?”

For many wealthy families, leaving an inheritance for the next generation is a key goal, and some will even build in a specific amount they plan to leave after they pass. But, Bill argues that you shouldn’t wait until you’re gone to give money to the next generation. Instead, he believes that by giving money while you’re alive, you not only get to reap the benefits of watching the next generation enjoy the money, but you’re also more likely to give the money when it’s needed the most (when your heirs are young and starting their families, buying homes, putting kids through school, and more).

In Bill’s book, he explains that he has already given his kids close to 90% of their inheritance, which has empowered him even further to maximize the enjoyment he gets from his money, without worrying about what will be left for the kids. 

In addition, he argues that by waiting until you die to give an inheritance, you’re subject to the three R’s: ”Giving random amounts of money at a random time to random people (because who knows which of your heirs will still be alive by the time you die?).”

Of course, there are valuable tax considerations to understand when giving money while you’re alive versus waiting until after you’ve passed, so it’s important to do your research when deciding what’s right for you. 

If you want additional insights into the pros and cons of giving while you’re alive vs waiting until you pass, check out our article: Transferring Wealth: The Pros and Cons of Giving While You’re Alive vs After You’re Gone.

Wrapping it All Up

In the end, you don’t need to literally “die with zero” to take valuable lessons from Perkins’ philosophy. 

Instead, his approach reminds us to live more fully and enjoy the wealth we have while we’re still here to benefit from it. To not delay experiences until it’s too late, and to consider passing wealth to the next generation when they need it the most, and, when you’re around to watch them enjoy it.

Ultimately, by reflecting on how you spend your money, and prioritizing experiences that bring lasting joy and fulfillment through memory dividends, you can find a healthy balance between living in the moment and securing your financial future.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Spring 2025 Client Conference Call

During last week’s conference call, our panelists – Jason Ware (CIO & Chief Economist), John Bird (CEO & Co-Founder), Anders Skagerberg (Senior Wealth Advisor), and Liz Bernhard (President & Senior Wealth Advisor) – addressed the heightened uncertainty in today’s economic and market environment. They discussed recent volatility in both stock and bond markets, the weakening US dollar, and declining consumer sentiment. The conversation covered the broader economic landscape, including the impact of shifting trade policies, new tariffs, and changes in federal policy leadership, all of which have contributed to a general slowing in economic activity as businesses and consumers await greater clarity.

The team also shared insights from our client conversations. Many are understandably feeling nervous given the current uncertainty, and we emphasized that Albion’s planning process is designed to account for both good times and challenging periods. Our scenario modeling is designed so financial plans remain robust, even in less favorable environments. At the same time, we recognize that everyone’s situation and perspective is unique—some are concerned, while others, with more experience weathering market cycles, are less fazed by current events.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Quarterly Letter – First Quarter 2025

As the snow melts and spring blossoms emerge, we close the books on a dynamic first quarter and look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead in this season of renewal and growth. From the desk of Albion’s President Liz Bernhard, this letter begins with a retrospective of headlines from past recessions compared to the tone of today’s newspapers. Then our CIO Jason Ware details the strengths and weaknesses of the US economy and markets. Finally, Senior Wealth Advisor Anders Skagerberg promotes the long-term mindset that is required to persist through challenging times. Read through to our Community segment for team updates and upcoming events.

From the Desk Of Liz Bernhard

“This Time Is Different”—But Is It, Really? 

Every market cycle brings its own headlines, anxieties, and reasons to believe that “this time is different.” And in some ways, it is—unique political developments, global tensions, new technologies, and shifting economic data can make the present feel unprecedented. 

Lately, investors have voiced concerns about market volatility, geopolitical strife, and domestic political uncertainty. It’s easy to feel unsettled. These moments invite the temptation to react, retreat, or alter long-term plans based on short-term fears. 

But while the circumstances change, human behavior rarely does. History shows that uncertainty is not the exception—it’s the norm. Markets have weathered wars, recessions, elections, and crises. And each time, the refrain is familiar: “But this time feels different.” 

And yet—this too shall pass. 

Let’s take a walk down memory lane. Remember the Great Financial Crisis of 2008? Of course you do. A few headlines from that time: 

  • “Job Losses Accelerate, Signaling Deepening Recession” — The New York Times, Dec. 6, 2008 
  • “Foreclosures Soar as Homeowners Fall Behind” — Bloomberg, late 2008 
  • “World Recession Looms as Markets Tumble” — BBC News, Oct. 6, 2008 

How about COVID? 

  • “Wall Street’s Coronavirus Collapse Marks Fastest Bear Market Ever” — Bloomberg, Mar. 12, 2020 
  • “Oil Prices Plunge to 18-Year Low as Demand Evaporates” — CNBC, Mar. 30, 2020 
  • “March 2020 Becomes Most Volatile Month in Stock Market History” — MarketWatch, Mar. 31, 2020 

The beginning of the war in Ukraine: 

  • “Market Volatility Spikes as Russia Launches Full-Scale Attack on Ukraine” — CNBC, Feb. 24, 2022 
  • “Stocks Swing and Oil Prices Soar After Russia Attacks Ukraine” — CBS News, Feb. 24, 2022 
  • “Global Inflation Surges Amid Ukraine Conflict” — Reuters, May 10, 2022 

And now: 

  • “Consumer Confidence Hits Two-Year Low as Inflation and Job Fears Rise” — Associated Press, Mar. 28, 2025 
  • “Wall Street Tumbles, and S&P 500 Drops 2% on Worries About Slower Economy, Higher Inflation” — Associated Press, Mar. 28, 2025 

Each moment felt unique: the worst economy since the Great Depression, a global pandemic, a war in Europe. And each time, the market—and headlines—reacted. Yet the market recovered. 

  • The S&P 500 took about 4.5 years to recover from the March 2009 low during the GFC. 
  • The COVID crash recovery took under five months. 
  • After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it took only a month for markets to bounce back. 

The point is: markets recover. Stocks go higher. While each situation truly was different, those who stayed the course were rewarded. 

The core principles of sound investing haven’t changed: stay disciplined, remain diversified, and stay focused on long-term goals. Emotional reactions to uncertainty are among the greatest threats to building lasting wealth. 

Our approach remains rooted in evidence, not emotion. We build durable portfolios designed to weather a wide range of possibilities—always with an eye on the big picture and the most probable long-term outcomes: humanity will progress, economies will grow, markets will rise. And within that reality, asset allocation, diversification, behavior, and planning are what matter most. 

The Wall Street Journal from March of 2020. The coronavirus outbreak fanned new fears of a worldwide recession, as well as an all-out oil price war, sending stock markets spiraling down to new record lows not seen since the financial crisis of 2008.

Economy and Markets by Jason Ware

The first quarter of 2025 is in the books, and it was a bumpy one. While it never feels like it at the time, corrections are normal – even healthy – in a bull market. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced 103 such corrections, occurring about once every 13 months, with an average drawdown of -13.5%. The latest decline of about -10% follows an extended stretch of relative calm as the previous correction (September-October 2023) was roughly 16 months ago. Put differently, in a way, markets were sort of due. We certainly recognize that pointing to historical patterns offers little comfort when portfolios are under pressure. But history is clear on how most corrections end: by avoiding recession. The majority don’t turn into full-blown bear markets. When they do, it’s almost always tied to economic contractions or sudden, unexpected shocks. 

Consequently, the critical question now is: where do we stand on recession risk? Let’s unpack.  

Underneath the volatility – both in the markets and the headlines – the US economy remains on pretty good footing, though with some shifting undercurrents. Growth is moderating from last year’s pace, but not stalling. The labor market, while cooling at the margins, is still adding jobs, layoffs are low, and wage growth continues to outpace inflation supporting real household incomes. Meanwhile, business investment runs apace, with AI, automation, software, and infrastructure spending leading the way. 

That said, some pockets of weakness are emerging. Higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on certain industries, particularly interest-rate-sensitive sectors like commercial real estate, housing, and manufacturing. Consumer spending, while resilient, is showing more divergence between higher-income households (who are still spending freely) and lower-income consumers, who are feeling the pinch of tighter credit conditions, a lower savings cushion, and elevated uncertainty. However, with pro-growth fiscal deficits still in place (despite ‘DOGE’), productivity improving, and a generally healthy jobs market underwriting robust services activity (by far the largest piece of GDP), we continue to believe the post-Covid economic expansion endures. 

Meanwhile, the inflation story has largely played out as we’ve expected. The supply shocks and demand surges of 2021-23 have faded, and price pressures have eased. While we’re unlikely to see inflation sustainably at 2% any time soon, the mid-to-high-2s look like a reasonable resting place. That’s a world away from the 9.1% peak of 2022, and as long as inflation stays contained the Fed has room to maneuver. Moreover, as we’ve past highlighted, inflation at 3% or less is constructive for both the economy and stock market.  

After holding rates steady for much of 2024, the Fed finally pivoted to rate cuts late last year. The goal? A “soft landing” where inflation stays in check without tipping the economy into recession. The Fed’s definition of “neutral” policy – where rates neither stimulate nor restrict growth – coupled with the economy’s structural underpinnings as we see them suggest a terminal fed funds rate somewhere around 3.5%. With inflation easing, the Fed had begun moving in that direction, but the path forward remains uncertain. Markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts ahead, but the Fed is keeping its options open, and we see “sticky” inflation restraining them for now – unless unemployment begins to rise meaningfully. 

Bond yields have settled into a more predictable range. If neutral rates are around 3.5% and term premiums are historically normal, then long-term Treasury yields should hover in the 4.0-5.0% range. Of course, fiscal deficits, geopolitical events, US economic growth and inflation, as well as investor sentiment will keep things volatile at times. But in general, this is a favorable environment for long-term investors with a balance asset allocation looking to lock in attractive yields. 

Turning to stocks, notwithstanding the acute volatility since late-January, US equities remain well-supported by fundamentals. Corporate earnings are growing at a healthy pace. S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) finished 2024 at $243, with estimates for 2025 approaching $270 (that’s double-digit growth!) and 2026 potentially reaching $300. For context, EPS was about $138 at the Covid low and $162 in 2019, reinforcing the ever-present resiliency and dynamism that defines American business … a vigor we never wish to bet against.  

While earnings growth remains strong, valuation is a key consideration. As of this writing, the S&P 500 trades at ~20.5x this year’s earnings – not “cheap” per se, but certainly not extreme. Much of the premium remains concentrated in a handful of technology (AI) stocks, while other areas of the market, such as healthcare, industrials, REITs, financials, and small / mid-caps, offer more attractive valuations. Many of the mega cap stocks, or “Mag 7”, also look more attractive amid the market pullback. Portfolio positioning remains key, as leadership may continue to broaden beyond the handful of dominant winners. In everything we do, the mantra own great companies and diversify reigns supreme.   

In sum, as noted in our last missive, we’re calling 2025 “A Year of Three-Twos.” That is, a US economy growing at roughly +2%, core inflation settling into the mid-2s, and a Fed that may cut rates two times. It’s a backdrop supportive of continued, if more moderate, market gains. Indeed, we don’t need multiple expansion. Rather, merely sustaining nourishment from a salubrious business cycle and profits should do the trick. Of course, risks remain. Geopolitics, tariffs, government austerity, the level of inflation and bond yields could each or in concert introduce volatility. But overall, the foundation, at present, remains solid from our perch. 

As always, we remain resolutely focused on navigating the ever-evolving landscape while keeping our true north, the long-term, firmly as our guide. Thank you for your continued trust! 

Mind The (Behavior) Gap

Anders Skagerberg, CFP®, EA

As the first quarter of 2025 comes to a close, a few things stand out to me.

First and foremost, as an advisor, I’m reminded that one of the best parts of my job is the privilege of walking alongside my clients—through market ups and downs, life’s milestones, and all the thoughtful decisions in between. This is meaningful, important work.

Second, periods like these highlight just how powerful human behavior is. Recently, markets have been bumpy and headlines unsettling, affecting how we feel as investors—and ultimately, how we behave.

Like it or not, we’re wired to feel losses more intensely than gains and to focus more on negative information than positive. These behavioral biases—known as loss aversion and negativity bias—are built-in features of the human brain.

Now, don’t get me wrong—these biases aren’t inherently bad. Think of them like a well-meaning friend who always ‘speaks their mind.’ They’re survival mechanisms, hardwired to protect us from danger. If we rewind a few hundred thousand years, early humans lived in a world filled with physical threats, where losing essential resources like food, shelter, or safety could literally mean life or death. That harsh reality shaped our brains to prioritize avoiding losses and taking fewer risks—because back then, one wrong move could have serious consequences.

Fast forward to today, and those same instincts often lead to unintended, sometimes costly, outcomes. What once protected us can now get in the way, pushing us toward decisions that undermine our long-term financial well-being.

In our industry, we call this impact The Behavior Gap.

At Albion, this concept is so central to how we think about investing that we’ve made “Behave Yourself” one of our Four Pillars of Investing. It’s something our Chief Investment Officer, Jason, reminds us of regularly: “Investor behavior will determine success or failure more than anything else.”

Popularized by financial writer Carl Richards and quantified in Dalbar’s annual Investor Behavior Report, the behavior gap refers to the difference between what an investment should return and what an investor actually earns. Simply put, it’s the gap between potential returns and actual results.

And it turns out, there’s quite a gap. 

Dalbar’s most recent study, published in April 2024, shows the average investor underperformed the market by 5.5% in 2023—the third-largest gap in the past decade. Looking at the long-term data, since 1988 the market has averaged a 10% annual return, while investors earned just 4.1%. That’s nearly a 6% shortfall per year!

This is why, as investors, managing our own behavior is one of the most crucial ingredients for growing wealth.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. If it were easy, everyone would do it—and the gap would disappear. But it’s worth the effort. And ultimately, this is where we strive to add the most value as your advisors. We understand it’s scary. We understand how it feels (we’re investors too). And we understand what’s at stake.

If nothing else, I hope this gives you a glimpse behind the curtain at how we think about our work. To us, the most meaningful thing we can do is be there—through the good times and the bad—to help you make the best decisions for yourself and your family, even when they don’t feel like the easiest.

But before I go, in true advisor fashion, I want to leave you with some practical steps. Here’s how to mind the (behavior) gap:

Step 1: Be aware of the gap.

If you’ve read this far, you’re already ahead—you’re now aware of the gap that exists between investment returns and investor returns. Awareness is the first, crucial step.

Step 2: Understand the role of volatility.

You’ve likely heard the term, but volatility simply measures how much and how quickly an asset’s price moves over time. Here’s the key: volatility isn’t something to avoid—it’s something to expect. It’s the price we pay for long-term growth. As financial writer Morgan Housel puts it, “Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside is superior long-term returns. You have to pay the price to get the returns.”

But here’s the part you can control: how much volatility you feel.

Consider two investors who both started 30 years ago, invested the same way, and never sold. One checks their account once after 30 years. The other checks daily.

Both end up with the same financial result—but their experiences are vastly different.

The first investor might think, “Wow, investing is simple. Look how much my account grew.” The second, having lived through every dip—the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID crash—might feel like they barely made it through.

This is an extreme example, but the point stands: volatility is unavoidable, but how intensely you experience it is within your control. The more you check, the more you’ll feel the bumps. The volatility exists either way—but you decide how much of it affects you.

Step 3: Focus on what really matters.

At the end of the day, investing isn’t just about numbers or market performance—it’s about your life, your family, your dreams, and your legacy. When headlines feel overwhelming and markets feel uncertain, it helps to come back to what truly matters.

Think about the goals we’ve planned for together—whether it’s retirement, supporting your kids or grandkids, or contributing to causes close to your heart. Keeping these front and center brings clarity and perspective when doubt creeps in.

As your advisors, we’re here to keep you grounded in those objectives. It’s not always easy, but the most important decisions rarely are. We’re grateful for your trust and partnership as we navigate these moments—always keeping your bigger picture in mind.

Read the full quarterly letter with the Community segment here.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Are You Retiring In The Next 5 Years? Here Are 3 Critical Steps To Help You Prepare

Executive Summary:

  • As you approach retirement, it’s important to take steps to help ensure a smooth transition. This article highlights three critical steps you can take to get you ready for your work-free years.
  • First, figure out what you’re retiring to: Beyond financial readiness, it’s essential to plan for how you’ll spend your time in retirement, ensuring you maintain a sense of purpose, fulfillment, and connection.
  • Second, review your investments and adjust as needed: Assess your current asset allocation and make necessary adjustments to align with your risk tolerance and income needs as you near retirement.
  • Third, plan your retirement paycheck: Develop a detailed strategy for how you’ll draw income from your retirement accounts, considering the frequency of payments and the tax implications of withdrawals.

Retirement is one of the biggest financial transitions there is, marking a major shift from your working years to your work-free years. As such, it’s critical to prepare, often decades in advance, for this big moment.

But, while many start preparing for retirement in advance by funding retirement accounts and paying off debt, there are a few critical (and timely) steps that can easily get overlooked. In this article, we will cover three critical steps to prepare for retirement in the next five years.

Let’s dive in.

Step #1: Figure Out What You’re Retiring To

It’s natural to view retirement readiness as a math equation: you figure out how much money you need to stop working (adjusted for inflation), hit that number, and then sail off into the sunset. But, the reality is that financial readiness is just one piece of the puzzle, and for many, it’s the simple part.

The more challenging piece of the puzzle is figuring out a) what you’ll do every day and b) how you’ll maintain a sense of purpose. For many soon-to-be-retirees, this may sound silly, as people often imagine filling their free time will be a piece of cake, especially when they’ve had such little free time outside of their careers.

But, the truth is that retirement is a major lifestyle change so it’s important to have a plan in place for how you’ll spend your time.

So, as you approach retirement, take some time to think about what you want your retirement day-to-day to look like. Do you want to travel? Volunteer? If so, where will you travel, and where will you volunteer? Will you pursue a hobby or passion project? Again, get specific: what hobby or hobbies will you focus on?

Zooming in even further, what will an average day look like for you? What time will you wake up? How will you start your day? Answering each of these questions can help prepare you to make the transition as smooth as possible.

Additionally, consider how much physical activity and social interaction you will need.

Unfortunately, many retirees struggle with depression, stress, and anxiety, so finding activities that keep you active and engaged with others can greatly enhance your overall retirement experience. Also consider that, for many, work not only filled the majority of their time but also provided a sense of friendship and community through their coworkers. In addition, many received a sense of purpose through work as they were continually working toward and achieving goals and improving their craft. So, it’s essential to be mindful of the different areas of your life that work impacts and have a plan for how you will recreate that in retirement.

Ultimately, remember that planning for retirement goes beyond just financial readiness—it’s about designing a life that brings purpose and fulfillment. By considering how you’ll spend your time and maintaining connections, you can create a truly rewarding retirement.

For more insights on navigating the complexities of retirement, check out our previous post: Struggling in Retirement? How to Make the Most of Your Golden Years by Understanding and Navigating the 4 Phases of Retirement from Dr. Riley Moynes.

Step #2: Review Your Investments & Adjust As Needed

Next, as you approach retirement, it’s critical to review your investments and adjust as needed, specifically review and adjust how your investments are allocated.

But First, What is ‘Asset Allocation?’

Put simply, asset allocation is the process of dividing your investments among different types of assets, like stocks, bonds, and cash, to balance risk and reward based on your financial goals and risk tolerance.

In other words, your asset allocation is the mixture of stocks and bonds within your investments.

For many, when they are young and have a long time until retirement, their assets will be allocated more aggressively, often ranging anywhere from 100% stocks to 80% stocks and 20% bonds. Alternatively, those approaching or in retirement often dial down their stocks, adding more bonds to help limit the swings within their portfolio. This often ranges anywhere from 70% stocks and 30% bonds to a more balanced portfolio, with 50% stocks and 50% bonds.

All that said, the interesting thing about asset allocation is there’s really no one-size-fits-all.

For example, there are young people with a long time horizon who simply aren’t interested in the volatility that can come with a more aggressive investment portfolio, so they dial back their stock allocation early on. Alternatively, some retirees are comfortable taking more risk or simply have such significant assets that they can weather any volatility that could come their way without the impacting their financial plan. So, they may opt for a more aggressive asset allocation, realizing that they will have a more volatile portfolio over time, but they can often expect greater returns over time, though nothing is guaranteed.

The point is, while there’s no standard portfolio for every retiree, it is critical to review your investments and adjust as needed.

Here are some things to consider as you review and adjust:

  • Your Risk Tolerance: As you approach retirement, it’s important to assess how comfortable you are with the possibility of losing money in the short term. If the idea of seeing your investments drop in value keeps you up at night, you might want to consider shifting to a more conservative asset allocation. On the other hand, if you’re confident in your ability to ride out market ups and downs, you may decide to maintain a higher percentage of stocks.
  • Your Income Needs: Consider how much income you’ll need to generate from your investments once you retire. If you’ll be relying heavily on your portfolio for income, a more conservative allocation with a higher percentage of bonds or dividend-paying stocks could provide more stability and predictable income. However, if you have other sources of income, such as a pension or Social Security, you might be able to take on more risk in your investments.
  • Rebalancing: Over time, as different parts of your portfolio grow at different rates, your asset allocation can drift from your original plan. Regularly reviewing and rebalancing your portfolio ensures that it stays aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. This might mean trimming some of your winners and buying assets that haven’t performed as well to bring your portfolio back into balance.
  • Tax Implications: Keep in mind that selling investments to adjust your asset allocation can have tax consequences in certain accounts like trust accounts or taxable brokerage accounts. Be sure to factor in any potential capital gains taxes when making changes to your portfolio.
  • Consulting a Financial Advisor: Lastly, if you’re unsure about the best asset allocation for your situation, or if you’re finding it challenging to make these decisions on your own, consulting with a financial advisor can be invaluable. They can provide personalized advice based on your unique financial situation and help you create a plan that aligns with your retirement goals.

Ultimately, taking the time to carefully review and adjust your investments as you near retirement can help ensure that your portfolio is positioned to support your lifestyle and goals in the many years to come.

Step #3: Plan Your Retirement Paycheck

Lastly, as you approach retirement, it’s time to plan your retirement paycheck.

One of the biggest shifts you’ll experience from working to not working is that you’ll no longer receive a paycheck from your employer. And while this may seem obvious, it’s important to spend some time planning how you will create your new retirement paycheck.

In other words, what accounts will you distribute funds from each week, month, quarter, or year to cover your living expenses? How much do you need? What account will the money go into? How will you handle one-off expenses?

As you create a plan, get as detailed as possible by answering these three questions below:

1. How much do you need? One of the big questions to answer in retirement is how much money you will need to cover your lifestyle. For many it can be fairly simple: take what you were earning before retirement, add any new retirement expenses (think: bigger travel budget), subtract out any retirement savings or contributions you were making during your working years, and subtract out any expenses that fall off during retirement (think: paid off mortgage). That’s the amount you will need to generate with your retirement paycheck.

It’s also important to consider any one-off expenses that may come up during retirement, such as buying a new car or home renovations. When creating a retirement plan, be sure to factor in these potential expenses so you can have a cushion for these expenses that fall outside your normal ‘retirement paycheck.’

2. How often will you get paid? Next, when planning for retirement, it’s important to consider the frequency of your income. For many people, sticking with a payment schedule they are used to is the best option. This could mean receiving payments every two weeks, as they did during their working years. However, it’s also important to note that certain types of retirement income, such as pensions and social security, are typically paid monthly. In addition, depending on how your investments are set up and allocated, you may not like the extra work that comes with creating your own retirement paycheck each month or every couple of weeks (selling investments, raising cash, etc) so you may decide that quarterly or even annually feels like a better fit. Whatever the case, the important thing is to get specific about how often you’ll be getting paid so you have a plan.

3. Where will the money come from? Lastly, spend some time planning the breakdown of your retirement paycheck. In other words, if you need $10,000 per month, where will that money come from? If you’ve got pensions and Social Security that total around $5,000 per month then you’re already halfway there.

As you create a plan, consider all the different types of investments you have and the tax implications of each. For example, many retirees have a mixture of tax-deferred (often called pre-tax or “Traditional” assets), tax-free (often called after-tax or “Roth” assets), and taxable accounts. As you create your retirement paycheck, remember that taking money from each of these different investment accounts will have different tax implications.

  1. Traditional assets will be taxed as ordinary income at your highest marginal tax rate.
  2. Roth assets will be completely income tax-free.
  3. Taxable assets will have a mix of ordinary income rates (at your highest marginal tax rate) and more favorable long-term capital gains rates, ranging from 0 to 20%.

So, as you create your plan, be mindful of where you are each year from a tax perspective.

If you have the opportunity to fill lower tax brackets with ordinary income, that can be a great plan. Alternatively, if your income for the year is pushing you into a higher tax bracket than you want, consider utilizing your Roth accounts to create tax-free income. In the end, while this step will likely take some time and planning, it can be well worth it to create a tax-efficient retirement paycheck.

Conclusion: Wrapping Up Your Retirement Readiness

Ultimately, preparing for retirement in the next five years requires careful planning and thoughtful adjustments to ensure a smooth transition into this new chapter of life.

By taking the time to understand what your retirement will look like, reviewing and adjusting your investments, and planning your retirement paycheck, you can position yourself for a financially secure and fulfilling retirement. Remember, the key is to start now and stay proactive, so you can enjoy your golden years with confidence and peace of mind.

This blog post was also published as an article on LinkedIn

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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2025 Tax Planning Guide

2025 Tax Planning Guide [PDF]Download

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – January 24, 2025

Weekly Market Recap – January 24, 2025 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Stocks finished higher and bond yields fell slightly during a holiday-shortened week that was light on macro data, but long on executive orders and policy pronouncements from the new Trump administration. Notably absent was the immediate enactment of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, which had been repeatedly promised by Donald Trump on the campaign trail. Markets breathed a sigh of relief that perhaps tariffs would be used more thoughtfully by the Trump administration than many had feared.

The rise in stocks was broad-based, with 10 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 finishing higher on the week. Energy was the lone exception thanks to a $3/barrel pullback in oil prices. International benchmarks finished higher and largely outperformed the US, in large part due to relief that a punitive tariff regime was not immediately enacted by President Trump.

In fixed income, interest rate volatility subsided for the time being despite public pronouncements from Donald Trump that rates “need to be lowered immediately.” Credit rallied and spreads finished tighter by 2 basis points, in sync with the gains in equities.

In macro news:

* S&P’s US Manufacturing PMI just barely rose into expansion territory at 50.1

* S&P’s US Services PMI unexpectedly fell 4 points to 52.8

* The U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment index fell 2 pts to 71.1 in the final January print

* Existing home sales rose 2.2% in December to a SAAR of 4.24 million

Chart of the Week: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for high single-digit y/y growth for full-year 2024, with consensus calling for an acceleration to double-digit y/y growth in 2025.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 22.2x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the mid single digits.

Interest Rates

After the “hawkish cut” at the December 2024 FOMC meeting, a near term pause on further rate cuts is likely, and the curve has mostly resumed its normal upward slope. Belly and long end rates in the 4% to 5% range likely represent the “new normal” given solid economic growth, lingering inflation pressures, and large US fiscal deficits.

Inflation

After the disinflationary trend resumed in the summer of 2024, more recent inflation data has shown some renewed signs of stickiness. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Publisher’s Note: This is the final Weekly Market Recap from Michael Kessler after five years of writing this article every week. Michael is leaving Albion Financial Group this week. We thank him for his contributions over the years and wish him the best in his future endeavors!

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Weekly Market Recap – January 10, 2025

Weekly Market Recap – January 10, 2025 [PDF]Download

Weekly Recap:

Bond yields rose and equities fell after stronger-than-expected labor market data and rising inflation expectations dampened rate cut hopes.

On the labor front, the monthly JOLTS report showed 8.1 million open jobs in the US for November, more than 350k above consensus estimates which had called for a small sequential decline. The prior month was revised higher as well.

Then on Friday, the monthly jobs report from the BLS also exceeded consensus, with 256k nonfarm payrolls added. Unemployment (U3) fell 10bp sequentially to 4.1%, and underemployment (U6) fell 20bp to 7.5%.

At the same time as the labor market was showing continued strength, inflation concerns were stoked by the ISM Services Index, as the Prices Paid component unexpectedly rose more than 6 points sequentially to 64.4.

And finally, preliminary January data from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey showed rising inflation expectations over short (1y = 3.3%; +50bp m/m) and longer term (5-10y = 3.3%; +30bp m/m) time horizons.

The outcome for financial markets was predictable:

* Fed funds futures now imply just one 25bp rate cut will occur in 2025

* Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 20y briefly breaking above 5%

* Equity prices fell, led by rate-sensitive sectors like tech, financials and real estate

Chart of the Week: Net Nonfarm Payrolls Added

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for high single-digit y/y growth in 2024, with consensus calling for an acceleration to double-digit y/y growth in 2025.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 21.5x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the mid single digits.

Interest Rates

After the “hawkish cut” at the December 2024 FOMC meeting, a near term pause on further rate cuts is likely, and the curve has mostly resumed its normal upward slope. Belly and long end rates in the 4% to 5% range likely represent the “new normal” given solid economic growth, lingering inflation pressures, and large US fiscal deficits.

Inflation

After the disinflationary trend resumed in the summer of 2024, more recent inflation data has shown some renewed signs of stickiness. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Quarterly Letter – Fourth Quarter 2024

4th Quarter 2024 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

INTRODUCTION

As we bid farewell to the first quarter of the 21stcentury, we stand at the crossroads of innovation and uncertainty, where the echoes of past challenges mingle with the whispers of future possibilities. In this letter, our CEO John Bird explores how perspectives of political events have shifted over time, challenging our understanding of economic decision-making. Our CIO Jason Ware remarks on the economics of 2024, setting the stage for an intriguing financial landscape in 2025.Then, Senior Wealth Advisor Anders Skagerberg, standing at the threshold of this new year with its opportunities and challenges, looks to turn your aspirations into achievable goals and navigate the evolving landscape of personal finance with confidence and clarity.

FROM JOHN BIRD’S DESK

While inauguration day is still several weeks away it’s clear President elect Trump is already having an impact on how we view policy and economics domestically and globally. Markets responded favorably to his propensity toward deregulation and lower taxes. Individual reactions to Trump’s statements vary wildly depending on preconceived notions of his policy and personal views of his character. This is normal. Yet for the better part of a century the field of economics treated human emotions as secondary. When and why did economics become a field viewing itself as distinct from politics specifically and the vagaries of the human condition writ large?

The study of political economy evolved in the sixteenth century as philosophers of the time worked to understand the interplay of government policy and household management. These early writers wanted to know how we as individuals made decisions and how
government policy choices impacted those decisions. Adam Smith is perhaps the best known visionary in this school of thought though there were several others influential at the time. An overriding thesis was the notion that allowing for individual incentives fostered greater creativity, effort, and wealth creation than dictates from on high.

Centuries later, toward the end of the eighteen hundreds physical sciences were expanding understanding of our natural world through the scientific method and increased use of mathematics. It was in this period that the term “economics” began to supplant “political economy” as the field worked to shift more toward mathematical modeling of economic decision making with less reliance on factoring in the human emotional element driving the course of our economic path.

In the twentieth century the study of economics was dominated by factors that could be quantified. Numbers ruled the roost. And this period gave us volumes of insights into the working of our economic system which continue to help guide policy and investment decisions today. Yet an awareness of the importance of human behavior in economics can scarcely be overstated. Many of us work to be logical in our decision-making. But when we pull the trigger, it is the emotion of the moment that compels us to act. As investors we ignore this reality at our peril.

The University of Michigan collects data on consumer sentiment based on political party and the insights are a striking example of how our worldview impacts our perceptions. The information highlights that when a democrat is elected to the oval office democratic consumer sentiment spikes upward while republican sentiment plummets. When a republican is elected the effect is inverted. These changes in sentiment are at best loosely correlated (and typically not correlated at all) to unemployment rates, income growth, interest rates or other quantifiable factors that impact aggregate financial well-being. Rather, it’s us as humans acting … human. Turns out how we feel about something has a big impact.

When we look at how we respond to various events – like elections – it’s clear that “political economy” is a better way of understanding our environment and our behaviors than economics alone. It’s also essential to note that while we may understand the why of the financial markets a bit better that doesn’t mean we should change our approach. We continue to invest in companies with competitive advantages that can be sustained for the foreseeable future. We continue to hold those companies regardless of the emotions of the moment. Sometimes in the face of emotional swings so common to our human condition our best course of action is to follow the advice of the white rabbit in Lewis Carrol’s Alice in Wonderland: “Don’t just do something, stand there.” As we enter 2025, we will keep the wise words of said rabbit in mind and keep a steady hand on the tiller of your investments. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence in the Albion team. We wish you a healthy and prosperous new year.

ECONOMY & MARKETS by Jason Ware

What a charmed time this has been for Wall Street! The economy and earnings are doing well. Inflation and interest rates are coming down. Shoppers are outshopping. The US dollar has rallied, and the incoming administration is assumed to be more business friendly. The stock market is in its happy place as evidenced by yet another +20% annual gain. As we close out the year, let us explore each.

The US economy is strong. The labor market is healthy, people are pending, we have a boom in technology capex(AI and Cloud), and there remains a sturdy pro-growth fiscal tailwind. Things look fine today (nothing in the data points to recession) and growth in the years ahead should be stronger than the decade pre-Covid … not by a lot, but better … on rising real incomes, sustained expansionary policies from the Beltway, strong spending and investment on infrastructure and technology, and enhanced productivity.

On prices, the 2021-23 inflation problem has been solved. Not in terms of price level, that’s not going back down (a good thing). But as it relates to price growth, we’re now far better off. While the Fed’s 2% target remains elusive, we are close. Our view holds (for a few reasons) that we can expect inflation roughly in the mid-2s … that 2% will be this cycle’s floor not its ceiling (like in the 2010s) … and that’s just fine. Anything under 3% should be constructive for the economy and financial markets.

Meanwhile, the Fed is now in an easing cycle with a goal to arrive at “neutral.” For those with better things to do than study magic numbers in economics, the neutral rate is essentially inflation plus what economists call “r-star” (r*)– a real rate of interest that’s said to balance the economy. Neutral policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Presently, we consider this level to be perhaps 3.5-4.0% (note: for its part, the Fed currently thinks it’s 3%). Meaning, if things go well, we can expect a couple more quarter-point cuts along this path. Now, it’s possible (probable?) this won’t go perfectly to plan without some hiccups, but it could. And if so, that’s conceptually the track forward.

Bond yields take their cues from this base rate math. If 3.5-4.0% represents neutral fed funds and a reasonable term premium for the 10-year Treasury is maybe 1.0% or so, then 4.5-5.0% would be structural equilibrium. On the investment grade corporate side, add about +0.75-1.0% in risk premium. Certainly, these things will move around based on factors like mood, geopolitics, prospects for growth, inflation, and government deficits, making real-time bond yields messier than this straight-forward theoretical exercise. Nevertheless, today is a pretty good time to lock in yields, where appropriate, for balanced accounts.

Over in equity land, unsurprisingly we remain long run bullish on US stocks. The American system endures as the most innovative, dynamic, nimble, and resourceful economy on the planet. The finest universities, brightest minds, and most cutting-edge companies all reside here, not to mention the deepest and most efficient capital markets around. Combined, this is what Buffett calls the “American tailwind” – a force the now 94-year-old sage still believes will propel us onward in the years and decades to come. We agree. Accordingly, our belief is that stock prices will continue to do what they’ve always done: track the general direction of workforce demographics, economic growth, innovation, and business profits, all of which move up over time taking with them the long-term oriented investor.

Speaking of corporate profits, the single biggest item that informs stock prices, they’re at record highs. It’s likely that the S&P 500 logged ~$240 in earnings-per share (EPS) in 2024. If the economy holds up (our base case) we could see ~$275 in 2025 and perhaps ~$300 in 2026! For perspective, EPS troughed at ~$138 during Covid and was ~$162 the year before the pandemic. US companies are quite skilled at making money. More importantly, our portfolio companies continue to shine on this front. We still skew positive for our outlook on corporate earnings. Naturally though, there are some warts. Notable is valuation as stocks aren’t cheap. However we don’t deem them as expensive as those who cite “24x”, CAPE, or whatever. Moreover, it depends on where one chooses to look. Are there expensive parts of the market? Absolutely. More attractive expanses? Totally. At the index level, the S&P 500 currently has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just over 24x 2024 EPS and 21x that of 2025. Again, not cheap, but not crazy either. It’s been higher at times, and P/E is a terrible timing tool (its best use is to gage expected returns over longer periods, like a decade) so we can’t glean much from these figures as to where the market goes short run. Resultantly, we judge valuation as OK especially if earnings are expanding, inflation is benign, and we’re in an easing cycle with sensible and stable(ish) long rates. Too, post-election, we believe that earnings over the next year or two might come in higher than existing estimates on the notion that less regulation, lower taxes, and increased buybacks could fuel even loftier figures. We’ll see.

Underneath the index level, technology, AI, and the ‘Mag 7’ do look richer relative to other areas, while most everything else is cheaper (S&P 500 is ~16x ex-tech). Spots like health care (and other “defensives”), industrials, REITs, small caps, mid-caps, international, all sport lower valuations – both on a relative and absolute basis. The practical application of this being that portfolio construction and investment tilts matter, while diversification is still the only “free lunch” when investing. If equities broaden out (in earnest) in 2025, it’ll be important to have suitable exposures while preserving deliberate tilts toward quality businesses in tech and growing consumer names. Adding up the puts and takes, we think it unlikely the S&P 500 will be driven by multiple expansion in the years to come. Rather, earnings growth may contribute the lion’s share of the return. But don’t let that get you down beat. If earnings compound at, say, +6-8% (utterly doable) while dividends and buybacks add another couple percent, then the S&P 500 as purely an “earnings growth and shareholder returns story” can be a good stock market indeed. Falling P/Es would be a head wind to this calculus, but for now that’s not our expectation.

As we look ahead to 2025 we are calling it “A Year of Three-Twos.” That is, a US economy firmly growing mid-2s; (core) US inflation settling into the mid-2s; and a Fed that maybe cuts 2 times. 222 … an “angel number” (let’s hope!). Of course, amid all these variables and moving parts we’ll continue to do our job as your investment manager in navigating the landscape for our companies / investments. Thanks for your continued trust in us, and Happy New Year!

PLANNERS CORNER by Anders Skagerberg

As we step into 2025, the planning team remains committed to guiding you to a lifetime of good decisions. 

The start of a new year is a chance to reflect, refocus, and take meaningful steps toward your financial goals. Whether you’re planning for a major milestone, fine-tuning your retirement plan, or simply looking to enhance your financial knowledge, we’re here to support you every step of the way.

Looking back, 2024 was a big year – markets were up, we had a presidential election, and so much more. As we look forward to the new year, no one knows for certain what it will hold, but we’re confident that with thoughtful planning and a focus on what truly matters, it can be a year of progress, opportunity, and positive change.

In this planner’s corner update, we will cover:

  1. How to Crush Your Financial Goals in 2025
    Practical tips and strategies to set meaningful goals, automate your success, and celebrate progress along the way.
  1. Key Updates for 2025
    A look at higher contribution limits, expanded gifting opportunities, Social Security adjustments, and new catch-up provisions for those nearing retirement. 
  1. What We’re Working on This Quarter
    An overview of our initiatives, from updating RMD calculations to integrating income and employer benefits changes into your financial plan.

Let’s make 2025 a year of financial progress and success. Together, we’ll navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead with confidence and clarity!

Next, How to Crush Your Financial Goals in 2025

As we kick off the new year, it’s the perfect moment to take a step back and think about what matters most to you—and how your finances can support that vision. 

Depending on your stage of life, your financial goals might be less about growing your wealth and more about maintaining it, simplifying your financial life, or finding ways to use your money to create lasting memories with those you love. 

Whatever your focus, the key is to make your goals clear and actionable.

Instead of aiming to “save more” or “spend less,” think about specifics. Maybe you want to fund a family trip, increase your charitable giving, or update your estate plan. Having a concrete goal gives you something to measure progress against—and makes it much easier to see the finish line.

Once you’ve clarified your goals, it’s time to focus on how to make them happen. One of the simplest ways to stay on track is to automate whenever possible. Automating your distributions, bill payments, or even charitable contributions ensures you’re consistent without having to think about it too much. Plus, it gives you more time and energy to focus on what really matters—whether that’s planning your next adventure, enjoying time with family, or pursuing a hobby you love.

Of course, flexibility is just as important as structure. Life has a way of throwing curveballs—unexpected expenses, changes in tax laws, or even an unexpected opportunity you want to pursue. Having some wiggle room in your financial plan can help you roll with the punches while staying on track. For some, that might mean keeping a healthy amount of cash on hand or simply revisiting their plan more regularly to make adjustments.

As you think about the year ahead, it’s also worth reflecting on the bigger picture. How does your financial plan fit into the legacy you’re building? Maybe it’s about leaving something meaningful for your loved ones or supporting causes you’re passionate about. Having a conversation with your family about your values, your estate plan, or even your charitable intentions can make all the difference in ensuring your vision is carried forward in the way you intend.

Finally, don’t forget to pause and appreciate the progress you’ve already made. Achieving your goals—big or small—is worth celebrating. 

Whether it’s checking off a bucket-list experience, reaching a financial milestone, or simply enjoying the peace of mind that comes with knowing you’re on track, these moments matter. They remind us that financial success isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about living the life you want and sharing it with the people you love.

Here’s to making 2025 a year full of progress, purpose, and the joy that comes from seeing your hard work pay off.

Next up, here are some key financial updates to be aware of for 2025.

Key Updates for 2025:
  • Higher Contribution Limits:

401(k)/Roth 401(k): Increased to $23,500, with a $7,500 catch-up for those aged 50+.

IRA/Roth IRA: Remains at $7,000 with an additional $1,000 catch-up if you’re 50+.

HSA: Increased to $4,300 for individuals and $8,550 for families, with a $1,000 catch-up for those aged 55+.

Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): Increased to $108,000 for those over age 70.5. This can be a great way to support the charities you love while receiving valuable tax savings.

  • Social Security Benefits COLA Increase:

Social Security benefits will receive a 2.5% Cost-of-living increase for 2025.

  • Expanded Gifting Opportunities:

The annual gift tax exclusion has increased to $19,000, (up from $18,000) offering more opportunities for tax-efficient wealth transfers. This means that you can give $19,000 tax-free each year to any person. For a couple, that’s a combined $38,000 per year they can give to a single person.

  • NEW “Extra” Catch-Up Contributions for those age 60, 61, 62, and 63:

Larger catch-up contribution limits are now in place for those aged 60-63, making it easier to save more if you’re nearing retirement age. The limit is $11,250 instead of $7,500. This is a new change as of this year and is part of the Secure 2.0 Act passed in 2022.

  • Inherited IRA RMDs

If you inherited an IRA from someone other than your spouse after January 1, 2020, the SECURE Act introduced a 10-year rule requiring the account to be fully distributed by the end of the 10th year following the original owner’s death. For beneficiaries where the original account owner had already begun taking required minimum distributions (RMDs), the IRS requires annual RMDs in addition to the account being emptied by the end of the 10-year period.

However, due to clarifications and administrative challenges, the IRS waived the annual RMD requirement for 2020 through 2024. This means that even if you didn’t take any distributions during these years, you did not face penalties. Starting in 2025, the annual RMD requirement will resume, and beneficiaries must take these distributions or potentially face penalties. The 10-year deadline for fully depleting the account remains unchanged.

If you are interested in learning more about any of these updates or need additional clarification, as always, we are here to support you. 

Next up, here are some of the things we are working on this quarter as well as a few action items for you.

What We’re Working on This Quarter

The start of the year is always a busy time, and we’re focused on ensuring your financial plan is positioned for success. Here’s what the planning team is focused on:

  • Calculating Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) for those who need them. For those who take monthly distributions to satisfy your RMD, we will be updating those amounts as well to reflect your new RMD for the year. 
  • Updating Payroll Information and Benefits: If you’ve had changes in pay or recently made benefits elections during open enrollment, we’re integrating those updates into your plan.
  • Annual Tax Packages: for those with taxable accounts (non-retirement accounts) you will be receiving your annual tax package that includes a summary of your portfolio income for 2024. Reminder: this is not a tax document, just a summary. Investment account tax documents will be available from custodians starting in mid-February.

Action Items for You:

  • If you’ve received a raise, send us your updated pay stub so we can adjust your financial plan accordingly.
  • If your employer has an open enrollment period, share your benefits details with us to ensure your elections align with your goals.

Of course, this list is just a glimpse of what we’re focusing on this quarter. As always, we’re here to handle the details so you can stay focused on what matters most.

Ultimately, we’re thrilled to kick off another year of partnering with you to make thoughtful, informed financial decisions. Here’s to a successful and prosperous 2025!

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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2024 Market Recap

Market Recap – 2024 [PDF]Download

2024 Recap:

Economy:

Even as growth slowed in Europe and China, the US economy remained strong in 2024. Unemployment is low and wage gains are solid, supporting continued growth in consumer spending. Regional Fed surveys suggest that domestic manufacturing is still in a slump, but services PMIs (representing the bulk of the US economy) are solidly in expansion territory. Fiscal policy continues to be an economic tailwind thanks to a 2024 federal budget deficit equal to nearly 7% of GDP according to CBO projections.

Inflation:

The disinflation trend continued in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in 2023 when inflation fell rapidly from its mid-2022 peak. With one month of data (December) still to come, CPI inflation had fallen 60-70 basis points in 2024 to +2.7% (y/y) headline and +3.3% core, while PCE inflation was down a more modest 20-30 basis points to +2.4% (y/y) headline and +2.8% core. Progress on inflation appeared to stall in late 2024 as shelter costs showed early signs of reacceleration.

Monetary Policy:

The FOMC cut overnight interest rates at each of the last three meetings in 2024, by a total of 100 basis points (1%). Futures markets imply that one or two 25bp more cuts are likely to occur sometime in 2025, after a near term pause. The Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released at the December meeting also suggest a slower pace of rate cuts (2 instead of 4) in 2025 and a higher terminal rate (~3%) than was previously forecast by committee members.

Election:

After Donald Trump earned a second term as US president and the GOP took control of both houses of Congress, US stocks rallied on the prospect of lower corporate taxes and less regulation. Meanwhile, rates moved higher on the potential inflationary impact of tariffs and tight border controls, as well as concerns regarding future US federal budget deficits.

Bond Market:

Treasury yields moved higher for a 4th consecutive year, and the yield curve mostly reestablished an upward slope after a 2+ year period of inversion. Credit spreads gradually got tighter, reaching an all time tight of 74 basis points on the Bloomberg US Corporate Agg index shortly after the election. Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed were in the 6% to 7+% range all year, constraining transaction activity in the housing market.

Stock Market:

US stocks soared for a 2nd straight year, led once again by large cap technology companies. Financials also delivered strong returns, thanks in part to a steepening yield curve. Most other parts of the equity market posted smaller but still positive total returns, including cyclicals, defensives, small caps, and internationals.

Albion’s “Four Pillars”:

Economy & Earnings

The US economy has been resilient despite the higher interest rate environment. S&P 500 earnings are on track for high single-digit y/y growth in 2024, with consensus calling for an acceleration to double-digit y/y growth in 2025.

Valuation

The S&P 500’s forward P/E of 22x is well above the long run average, so valuations are likely to be a headwind to future returns. More predictive metrics like CAPE, Tobin’s Q, and the Buffett Indicator (Eq Mkt Cap / GDP) suggest that compound annual returns from current levels over the coming decade are likely to be in the mid single digits.

Interest Rates

After the “hawkish cut” at the December 2024 FOMC meeting, a near term pause on further rate cuts is likely, and the curve has mostly resumed its normal upward slope. Belly and long end rates in the 4% to 5% range may represent the “new normal” given solid economic growth, lingering inflation pressures, and large US fiscal deficits.

Inflation

After the disinflationary trend resumed in the summer of 2024, more recent inflation data has shown some renewed signs of stickiness. Services inflation remains somewhat elevated, in part due to heavily lagged shelter costs.

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.